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中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2009, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 30-38.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于实物期权的新技术投资决策实证研究

邢小强1, 仝允桓2   

  1. 1. 对外经济贸易大学国际商学院, 北京100029;
    2. 清华大学技术创新研究中心, 北京100084
  • 收稿日期:2008-09-05 修回日期:2009-07-07 出版日期:2009-08-30 发布日期:2009-08-30
  • 作者简介:邢小强(1978- ),男(汉族),山东东明人,对外经济贸易大学博士,讲师,研究方向:不确定条件下的技术创新管理.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金青年项目(70802013);国家自然科学基金重点项目(70233001)

Empirical Study on New Technology Investment Decision Based on Real Options Approach

XING Xiao-qiang1, TONG Yun-huan2   

  1. 1. School of International Business, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. Research Center for Technological Innovation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2008-09-05 Revised:2009-07-07 Online:2009-08-30 Published:2009-08-30

PDF (PC)

1700

被引次数

97

摘要： 本文基于对我国高新技术企业的实际调研,从实物期权视角检验不同类型不确定性对企业新技术投资决策的影响。研究结果表明,市场与政策不确定性对投资的延迟作用与技术不确定性对投资的促进作用得到不同程度验证,而竞争强度与投资不可逆程度对不确定性与投资关系的调节作用则不完全符合实物期权的理论预期。论文结果揭示了我国高新技术企业进行投资决策的一般规律,可为企业应用实物期权方法提供参考。

关键词: 新技术投资, 实物期权, 不确定性, 竞争强度, 不可逆性

Abstract: Based on the actual survey of high-tech companies in china,this paper tests the influence of different types of uncertainty on new technology investment decision in perspective of real options theory. The results show that the delaying effect of market and policy uncertainty and encouraging effect of technical uncertainty on investment decision are verified empirically in varying degree,while the moderating effects of competitive density and irreversibility on the relationship between uncertain and investment decision are not fully in accordance with the theoretical expectation. The results also bring to light some general rules in investment decision-making within high-tech companies,which can be referred for enterpises to apply the real option approach.

Key words: new technology investment, real option, uncertainty, competitive density, irrever sibility

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