主管：中国科学院
主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
　　　中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2010, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 168-174.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

能源社会核算矩阵模型的构建与应用

刘洪涛, 席酉民, 郭菊娥, 钱冬   

  1. 西安交通大学管理学院中国管理问题研究中心, 陕西 西安 710049
  • 收稿日期:2008-12-22 修回日期:2009-12-18 出版日期:2010-02-28 发布日期:2010-02-28
  • 作者简介:刘洪涛(1985- ),男(汉族),江西南康人,西安交通大学管理学院博士研究生,研究力向:投入产出分析与CGE模型.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(70121001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70773091)

The Construction and Application of Energy Social Accounting Matrix Model

LIU Hong-tao, XI You-min, GUO Ju-e, QIAN Dong   

  1. School of Management, Research center of Chinese Management Issue, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China
  • Received:2008-12-22 Revised:2009-12-18 Online:2010-02-28 Published:2010-02-28

PDF (PC)

1464

被引次数

20

摘要： 本文扩展建立了2005年中国能源SAM,通过设定能源效率不变和提高两种情景,构建了能源SAM模型并使用该模型定量测算了不同情景下四万亿元投资对各部门总产出、GDP、能源需求量和单位GDP能耗的影响。测算结果说明在能源效率不变的情景下这一投资将带来GDP增长59702亿元,能源需求增长52739万吨标准煤,通过优化产业结构降低单位GDP能耗4.932%;在能源利用效率提高5%的情景下则可以带来GDP增长59795亿元,能源需求增长51212万吨标准煤,通过技术进步和产业结构优化的综合效应降低单位GDP能耗5.419%。

关键词: 社会核算矩阵, 能源社会核算矩阵模型, 投资, 能源需求量

Abstract: In this paper,the energy social accounting matrix of China for 2005 has been established,and the energy SAM model has been constructed and applied to analyze the impacts of four trillion RMB investmenu on total production,GDP,energy requirement,and energy consumption per GDP under two scenarios which are with constant energy efficiency and improved energy efficiency.The empirical results show that,in the constant energy efficiency scenario,this investment will promote GDP increase by 5970.2 billion RMB and energy requirement by 5273.9 ton of standard coal,and energy consumption per GDP decrease by 4.932%which is the effect of industry structure optimization,andindustrial structure optimization;andintheimproved energy efficiency by 5% scenario,this investment will promote.P increase by 5979.5 billion RMB and energy requirement by 5121.2 ton of standard coal,and energy consumption per GDP decrease by 5.419%,which is the joint effect of industry structure optimization and technology improvement.

Key words: Social Accounting Matrix, Energy Social Accounting Matrix model , investment , energy requirement

中图分类号: