货币供应机制与财政支出的乘数效应——基于DSGE的分析

中国管理科学 ›› 2011, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2): 30-39.

货币供应机制与财政支出的乘数效应——基于DSGE的分析

简志宏, 李霜, 鲁娟

华中科技大学经济学院, 湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2010-06-29 修回日期:2010-12-25 出版日期:2011-04-30 发布日期:2011-04-30
作者简介:简志宏(1968- ),男(汉族),四川泸州人,华中科技大学经济学院金融系教授,研究方向:宏观政策分析、资产定价。
基金资助:
湖北省社会科学基金项目“十一五”规划资助项目([2010]098);华中科技大学自主创新研究基金资助项目(2010AW026)

Money Supply Mechnisiam and Multiplier Effects of Fiscal Expenditures： A DSGE-based Analysis

JIAN Zhi-hong, LI Shuang, LU Juan

School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2010-06-29 Revised:2010-12-25 Online:2011-04-30 Published:2011-04-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文通过构建包括货币供应机制的DSGE模型,分析了中国政府购买支出和公共投资支出的乘数效应,发现两类财政支出对私人消费和私人投资都产生了挤出效应,公共资本的产出弹性低是产生挤出效应的结构性原因,在中国货币供应机制减小对通货膨胀负向反应和增大对产出正向反应的配合下,政府购买支出和公共投资支出能够对私人消费和私人投资产生正向的挤入效应。

关键词: 货币供应机制, 政府购买, 公共投资, 乘数效应

Abstract: This paper investigates the multiplier effects of China's government purchase and public investment based on an extended DSGE framework in which monetary policy is characterized by an endogenous money supply mechanism.It shows that both kinds of government expenditures have crowding out effect on private consumption and private investment.Sensitive analysis finds that the main contribution to fiscal crowding out effect is relative lower output elasticity of government capital.In the case of less negative response of money supply to inflation or stronger positive reaction to output in China's monetary policy,the government purchase and public investment will lead to a rise in private consumption and private investment.

Key words: money supply mechnisiam, government purchases, public investment, multiplier effects

中图分类号:

F830
F019.6

简志宏, 李霜, 鲁娟. 货币供应机制与财政支出的乘数效应——基于DSGE的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2011, 19(2): 30-39.

JIAN Zhi-hong, LI Shuang, LU Juan. Money Supply Mechnisiam and Multiplier Effects of Fiscal Expenditures： A DSGE-based Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2011, 19(2): 30-39.

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[2]	简志宏, 朱柏松, 李霜. 动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (1): 30-42.