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中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2008, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 137-141.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

储量不确定对可耗竭资源优化开采的影响研究

葛世龙, 周德群, 陈洪涛   

  1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏南京 210016
  • 收稿日期:2008-03-25 修回日期:2008-11-30 出版日期:2008-12-31 发布日期:2008-08-20
  • 作者简介:葛世龙(1980- ),男(汉族),浙江天台人,南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:能源-环境-经济(3E)系统建模的研究.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(90510010);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70873058);南京航空航天大学科研创新群体基金(2007-5);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CX07B_241r)

Study of Impact on Optimum Extraction of Exhaustible Resources under Stock Uncertainty

GE Shi-long, ZHOU De-qun, CHEN Hong-tao   

  1. College of Economics and Management, NUAA, Nanjing 210016, China
  • Received:2008-03-25 Revised:2008-11-30 Online:2008-12-31 Published:2008-08-20

PDF (PC)

1474

被引次数

41

摘要： 回采率是储量不确定的重要参数之一。利用回采率提高的概率、调整次数及调整幅度描述回采率不确定,给出回采率的调整方法,进而确定了有效可采储量,然后利用最优控制理论建立了可耗竭资源最优开采模型,确定了资源最优开采路径、影子价格和耗竭时间。结果表明:提高回采率,能增加企业资源供给量,延长采区的服务年限;回采率提高的越多,需要调整的次数也越多,回采率提高的概率较高时,相应调整次数可以减少些;在理论上验证了当前提高回采率政策的有效性。

关键词: 可耗竭资源, 回采率, 有效可采储量, 耗竭时间

Abstract: Recovery rate is an important parameter of stock uncertainty. Using the probability of improved recovery rate,the number and extent of adjustment and the new recovery rate,recovery rate uncertainty is described. Then effective recoverable stock is determined. In the end,the model of optimal extraction of exhaustible resources is built by using the theory of optimal control.The expressions of optimal extraction path,shadow prices and exhaustible time are received. The results show that:the higher recovery rate is, the more resources are supplied and the longer service life of mining area is gained. Also the resources can be protected;higher recovery rate need more frequent to adjust. When probability of improved recovery rate is high,less frequency of adjustment is required. And it is proved in theory that the action to increase recovery rate is effective.

Key words: exhaustible resources, recovery rate, effective stock, exhaustible time

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