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中国管理科学 ›› 2010, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 25-31.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于变参数模型的流动性与上证综指收益率关系研究

王元月, 梁翠翠   

  1. 中国海洋大学经济学院, 山东青岛266071
  • 收稿日期:2009-07-18 修回日期:2010-01-12 出版日期:2010-04-30 发布日期:2010-04-30
  • 作者简介:王元月(1965- ),男(汉族),朝阳市人,中国海洋大学经济学院,教授,博士,研究方向:金融工程学.
  • 基金资助:

    青岛市软科学资助项目(09-1-1-102-(8)-zhc)

The Study of the Relationship Between Liquidity and The SSE Composite Index Rate of Return Based on Time Varying Parameter Model

WANG Yuan-yue, LIANG Cui-cui   

  1. College of Economic, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China
  • Received:2009-07-18 Revised:2010-01-12 Online:2010-04-30 Published:2010-04-30

摘要: 研究了流动性与上证综合指数收益率之间的时间序列动态关系,并利用状态空间模型对流动性与上证综指收益率的动态关系进行了变参数分析。结论是:上证综指收益率对宏观流动性变动的时变弹性系数在近几年流动性过剩的背景下,呈现上升趋势。其中,能源、钢铁和金融行业时变弹性系数波动比较剧烈,而医药行业的时变弹性系数波动较小。证券市场(微观)流动性变动的时变弹性系数随着我国股票市场发展的逐步健全、完善而趋于平稳。

关键词: 流动性, 收益率, 变参数模型, 时变弹性系数

Abstract: This paper explores the dynamic relations between the liquidity and the rate of return for time series characteristic by using the data of Chinese stock market,and constructs a time varying parameter model based on the state-space model. The major findings are as follows:with the background of excess liquidity in recent years,macro-liquidity coefficient of elasticity show an upward trend Besides,the coefficients elasticity in energy,steel,and financial sectors experienced more dramatic fluctuations,while the pharma-ceutical industry is less sensitive to time-varying elasticity coefficient. As the development of Chinese stock market,security market (micro-liquidity) coefficient of elasticity gradually stabilizesg.

Key words: liquidity, rate of return, variable-parameter model, coefficient of dynamic elasticity

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