关键词: 数据重心法, 参数估计, 钢材预测, 稳健法

Abstract: A new and useful parameter estimation method was presented in light of the stability of gravity center of object in this paper.This method could deal with the fitting and forecasting of economy volume and could greatly decrease the errors of the fitting and forecasting results.Moreover,the strict hypothetical conditions in least squares method were not mecessary in the method presented in this paper,which overcame the shortcomings of least squares method and expanded the application of data barycentre method.Application to the steel consumption volume forecasting was presented in this paper.It is shown that the result of fitting and forecasting was satisfactory.From the comparison between data barycentre forecasting method and least squares method,we could conclude that the fitting and forecasting results using data barycentre method were more stable than that using least squares regression forecasting method,and the computation of data barycentre forecasting method was simpler than that of least squares method.As a result,the data barycentre method was convenient to use in technical economy.

Key words: data barycentre method, parameter estimation, steel forecasting