动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析

中国管理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (1): 30-42.

动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析

简志宏¹, 朱柏松¹, 李霜²

1. 华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉 430074;
2. 武汉工业学院经济与管理学院,湖北武汉 430023

收稿日期:2010-04-09 修回日期:2011-08-25 出版日期:2012-02-29 发布日期:2012-03-09
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171090)

Dynamic Inflation Target, Money Supply Mechanism and China's Economic Fluctuation:A DSGE-based Analysis

JIAN Zhi-hong¹, ZHU Bai-song¹, LI Shuang²

1. School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;
2. School of Economics and Management,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430023,China

Received:2010-04-09 Revised:2011-08-25 Online:2012-02-29 Published:2012-03-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文建立了一个包含动态通胀目标的货币政策DSGE模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解、历史分解和反事实仿真方法研究了生产率冲击、消费需求冲击、通胀目标冲击、货币供给冲击对中国经济波动的影响。研究表明,DSGE模型对于分析中国的宏观经济和货币政策具有一定的适用性,中国的货币供应机制中存在不可观察动态内生通胀目标,并且动态通胀目标对生产率冲击做出正向响应的同时,对消费需求冲击做出负向响应;反事实仿真分析表明,具有动态通胀目标的货币供应机制能够起到稳定通货膨胀的作用。

关键词: 动态通胀目标, 货币供应机制, 经济波动

Abstract: This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze monetary policy and China's business cycle. A dynamic inflation target is introduced to investigate how productivity shock, consumer's demand shock, inflation target shock and money supply shock influence China's economic fluctuations. The empirical evidence reveals that DSGE framework is suitable for the analysis of China's macroeconomic problems. It supports the assumption that China's monetary policy has a dynamic endogenous inflation target. The inflation target responds positively to the productivity shock and negatively to the consumer's demand shock. Furthermore, counterfactual simulation shows that the money supply mechanism with dynamic inflation target could stabilize inflation volatility.

Key words: dynamic inflation target, economic fluctuation, money supply mechanism

中图分类号:

F830
F019.6

简志宏, 朱柏松, 李霜. 动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (1): 30-42.

JIAN Zhi-hong, ZHU Bai-song, LI Shuang. Dynamic Inflation Target, Money Supply Mechanism and China's Economic Fluctuation:A DSGE-based Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (1): 30-42.

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