不确定需求情境下的供应链预测契约设计

中国管理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 57-67.

不确定需求情境下的供应链预测契约设计

李武强¹, 刘树林², 孙荣庭¹, 李毅斌¹

1. 长安大学经济与管理学院, 陕西西安 710064;
2. 西安交通大学管理学院, 陕西西安 710049

收稿日期:2011-05-17 修回日期:2013-01-18 出版日期:2013-10-30 发布日期:2013-10-15
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BJY080);陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2012KRZ10)

The Designing of Supply Chain Contract with Demand Forecast

LI Wu-qiang¹, LIU Shu-lin², SUN Rong-ting¹, LI Yi-bin¹

1. School of Economics and Management, Chang'An University, Xi'an 710064, China;
2. School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China

Received:2011-05-17 Revised:2013-01-18 Online:2013-10-30 Published:2013-10-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以报童模型为基础,研究了在由单一生厂商和零售商组成的供应链系统中,生产商如何通过契约设计来影响零售商的需求预测行为,使其收益最大化的问题。文章基于静态博弈模型对此问题进行了分析,发现在整合供应链情境下,当需求预测成本较小时选择预测能够获得更高的期望收益;在分散式供应链情境下,当生产商选择预测契约时,预测成本最终由生产商承担,且其期望收益为预测成本的减函数,而选择无预测契约时则为预测成本的非减函数;最后通过生产商期望收益对比,给出了最优策略。

关键词: 供应链, 预测, 契约, 缺货损失

Abstract: The supply chain system composed of a manufacturer and a newsvendor retailer is the focus of this paper. In such system, the point is how to design contracts which aim at maximizing the manufacturer's expected revenue by incenting the retailer's demand forecast decision. A static game model is developed for the contract designing. It is found that the contract with demand forecast can lead to higher expected revenue with low forecasting cost in the centralized supply chain. As in the decentralize supply chain, the manufacturer bears the cost entirely and its expected revenue is negatively related to forecasting cost when the contract with demand forecast is selected, but the manufacturer's expected revenue is nondecreasing as forecasting cost increase when the contract without demand forecast is selected. Moreover, the optimal strategy about which contract can maximize the manufacturer's expected revenue is given.

Key words: supply chain, forecasting, contract, shortage cost

中图分类号:

F224
F274

李武强, 刘树林, 孙荣庭, 李毅斌. 不确定需求情境下的供应链预测契约设计[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(5): 57-67.

LI Wu-qiang, LIU Shu-lin, SUN Rong-ting, LI Yi-bin. The Designing of Supply Chain Contract with Demand Forecast[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(5): 57-67.

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