垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期决策模型

中国管理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 86-93.

垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期决策模型

宋金波, 宋丹荣, 谭崇梅

大连理工大学管理学院, 辽宁大连 116024

收稿日期:2011-06-07 修回日期:2012-08-27 出版日期:2013-10-30 发布日期:2013-10-15
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70702033,71072107,71272091);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT11RW307);辽宁省高校优秀人才支持计划(LJQ2013011)

A Decision-Making Model of Concession Period for Refuse-Incineration Power Generation BOT Projects

SONG Jin-bo, SONG Dan-rong, TAN Chong-mei

School of Business Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China

Received:2011-06-07 Revised:2012-08-27 Online:2013-10-30 Published:2013-10-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着BOT模式在我国垃圾焚烧发电项目中的广泛应用,特许期决策问题得到了政府、项目公司和社会公众的普遍关注。通过对垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期影响因素的分析,建立了垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期的决策模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对项目各年的净现值进行模拟,以实现不同内部收益率水平的累积概率作为目标函数,求解出项目的合理特许期,并分析了垃圾热值和处理量两个关键参数变动对特许期决策的影响,以期为政府和项目公司运作垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目提供决策参考。

关键词: BOT, 垃圾焚烧发电, 特许期, 蒙特卡罗模拟

Abstract: BOT mode has been widely used in refuse-incineration power generation projects all over the country. Concession period as a key parameter in BOT projects has captured the attention of government, companies and publics. Under the circumstances, influencing factors of concession period in refuse-incineration power generation BOT projects is analyzed, and a concession period decision-making model is proposed in this paper. Based on Monte-Carlo simulation method, NPV of every year is calculated. By adopting cumulative probability under different levels of IRR as the objective function, the reasonable concession period is determined. In addition, to provide a reference for the government and companies, the impact of heat value and handling capacity on the concession period is also analyzed in this paper.

Key words: Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT), refuse-incineration power generation, concession period, Monte-Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

F294

宋金波, 宋丹荣, 谭崇梅. 垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期决策模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(5): 86-93.

SONG Jin-bo, SONG Dan-rong, TAN Chong-mei. A Decision-Making Model of Concession Period for Refuse-Incineration Power Generation BOT Projects[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(5): 86-93.

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