基于广义随机Petri网的重大传染病传播演化模型研究

中国管理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 74-81.

基于广义随机Petri网的重大传染病传播演化模型研究

李勇建, 王循庆, 乔晓娇

南开大学商学院, 天津 300071

收稿日期:2012-07-30 修回日期:2013-04-26 出版日期:2014-03-20 发布日期:2014-03-19
作者简介:李勇建（1973- ），男（汉族），山东菏泽人，南开大学商学院教授，博士生导师，研究方向：物流与供应链管理、突发事件应急管理.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（91024002，71203134）

Spread Model of Major Infectious Disease Based on Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

LI Yong-jian, WANG Xun-qing, QIAO Xiao-jiao

Business School, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China

Received:2012-07-30 Revised:2013-04-26 Online:2014-03-20 Published:2014-03-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文采用多案例分析方法提取重大传染病疫情事件的属性，从"事件类型、关键属性、从属属性、环境属性和危害评估属性"对其进行结构化描述。在此基础上，分析重大传染病疫情发展演化事件链中关联事件的相关属性，利用基于广义随机Petri网的建模分析方法，根据广义随机Petri网与马尔科夫链的同构关系，得到重大传染病传播演化的广义Petri网模型和等价马尔科夫链模型。最后，通过马尔科夫链及相关数学方法分析其中的均衡状态及其变动规律，并对系统评估和改进提出建议，可为有效监控和应对疫情发展提供有力决策支持。

关键词: 突发事件, 重大传染病, 广义随机Petri网, 马尔科夫链

Abstract: Major infectious disease attributes are extracted in this paper by the approach of multi-case study to describe the major infectious disease structurally from the event type, the key attributes, the secondary attributes, the environment attributes and the hazard assessment attributes. On the basis of the structural description, properties of related events in the events chain are analyzed for the process of major infectious disease, the Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) is applied to model the diffusion of major infectious disease, and the corresponding Markov chain is established based on isomorphic relation between GSPN and Markov chain. Finally, the equilibrium state and fluctuation pattern of the system are studied for evaluating and improving the system with Markov chain and corresponding mathematics method, which provides decision-making support for monitoring and responding to the major infectious disease.

Key words: emergency, major infectious disease, generalized stochastic Petri nets, Markov chain

中图分类号:

R184
X913.4

李勇建, 王循庆, 乔晓娇. 基于广义随机Petri网的重大传染病传播演化模型研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(3): 74-81.

LI Yong-jian, WANG Xun-qing, QIAO Xiao-jiao. Spread Model of Major Infectious Disease Based on Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(3): 74-81.

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