需求驱动的移动商务价值链组织的多阶博弈仿真

中国管理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 58-66.

需求驱动的移动商务价值链组织的多阶博弈仿真

危小超^1,2, 胡斌¹, 聂规划²

1. 华中科技大学管理学院, 湖北武汉 430074;
2. 武汉理工大学经济学院, 湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2011-03-09 修回日期:2013-09-13 出版日期:2014-04-20 发布日期:2014-04-23
作者简介:危小超（1986- ），男（汉族），河南郑州人，武汉理工大学经济学院，讲师，博士，研究方向：管理系统模拟.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71271093，71131004，71172043，71072077）；国家科技支撑计划课题（2013BAH13F01）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项（2014-IV-114&2013-IV-127）

Demand-driven Simulation on the Mobile Value Chain Based on Multi-stage Game

WEI Xiao-chao^1,2, HU Bin¹, NIE Gui-hua²

1. School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
2. School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

Received:2011-03-09 Revised:2013-09-13 Online:2014-04-20 Published:2014-04-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于博弈论和扩散理论建立了多智能体模拟系统，实现了客户需求逆向驱动的价值链多阶博弈仿真，并进行模拟数据分析。以移动价值链为研究对象，建立考虑用户重复购买的BASS动力学模型，探讨移动市场中产品扩散过程；并基于实时需求数据驱动合作博弈模型，探讨了运营商和服务商的竞合关系；进一步结合进化博弈理论，描述了服务商动态联盟的演化过程。从价值链集成的角度，利用多阶博弈研究了价值链整体建模问题，并引入行业生命周期理论进行分析。通过一系列的虚拟实验，探讨了市场因素、服务商和运营商因素对收益的影响，为价值链管理决策提供依据。

关键词: 协同, 博弈论, 扩散理论, 生命周期, 多智能体

Abstract: Based on the game theory and diffusion theory, a multi-agent system is implemented to study the collaboration mechanism in demand driven mobile value chain. The value chain in mobile commerce is used as an example to obtain market demand data. Firstly, a traditional bass diffusion model based on system dynamics theory is expanded to depict the mobile product or service diffusion, which taking the repeat purchase into consideration. Secondly, a cooperative game model driven by real-time demand is built to examine the partner selection between mobile operators and service providers. Thirdly, an evolution game model is explored to investigate the collaboration in dynamic alliance of service providers, by which the market demand is satisfied. Then the integrated simulation system is rerun for several times, and analyzed by the life cycle theory. Simulation analytical and numerical results lend insight into how the industry profit is impacted by the market factors and mobile value chain factors, which contribute some decision support for mobile value chain.

Key words: collaboration, game theory, diffusion theory, life cycle, multi-agent

中图分类号:

F271

危小超, 胡斌, 聂规划. 需求驱动的移动商务价值链组织的多阶博弈仿真[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(4): 58-66.

WEI Xiao-chao, HU Bin, NIE Gui-hua. Demand-driven Simulation on the Mobile Value Chain Based on Multi-stage Game[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(4): 58-66.

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