基于知识库的应急领域脆弱性指标体系研究

中国管理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (7): 76-81.

基于知识库的应急领域脆弱性指标体系研究

萧海东^1,2, 陈宁³

1. 中国科学院上海高等研究院, 上海 201210;
2. 上海交通大学中美物流研究院, 上海 200030;
3. 华东理工大学信息科学与工程学院, 上海 200237

收稿日期:2012-02-10 修回日期:2012-12-30 出版日期:2014-07-20 发布日期:2014-07-24
作者简介:萧海东（1975-），男（汉族），甘肃临洮人，中科院上海高等研究院，博士，副研究员，研究方向：应急决策、复杂系统态势分析。
基金资助:
上海市科学技术委员会资助课题（12ZR1415200）；教育部人文社会科学研究项目青年基金资助项目（10YJCZH180）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（60903186，70732003）；上海市信息安全综合管理技术研究重点实验室开放课题（AGK2012008）

Research on Disruption Area Vulnerability Index Infrastructure based on Knowledge base

XIAO Hai-dong^1,2, CHEN Ning³

1. Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Shanghai 201210, China;
2. Sino-Us Globe Logistics Institute, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China;
3. School of Information Science and Engineering East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China

Received:2012-02-10 Revised:2012-12-30 Online:2014-07-20 Published:2014-07-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 应急事件的演化和应急领域的脆弱性指标变化有着密切关系。大型运作系统核心能力受损后的应急期间，管理者非常关心如何根据动态变化的受损情况把握关键指标因素进行恢复，从而降低应急管理成本。本文基于知识库对应急领域知识结构进行分析，并将层级时序记忆方法引入应急脆弱性指标知识挖掘体系，通过脆弱性态势感知解决了指标约简问题，最后给出了构建知识库的推理机设计和推理算法。本文得到有助于应急管理的结论：基于知识库的脆弱性指标体系可动态分析突发事件和应急管理中蕴涵的知识，有助于对应急事件演化机理准确把握，提高应对效率。

关键词: 知识库, 脆弱性, 层级时序记忆, 应急管理

Abstract: In this paper, vulnerability index infrastructure of disruption area is constructed based on knowledge base theory, to solve the problem that vulnerability of disruption is difficult to be described or understood by computer. Firstly, vulnerability index infrastructure is analyzed based on knowledge base, and vulnerability perception structure is constructed under disruption environment, multiple dimensions vulnerability data source are from multiple levels of supply chain in scene of disruption scenarios, the whole construction processing cover 3 parts: index extraction, features evaluation and situational awareness. Then, vulnerability index knowledge is mined with HTM (Hierarchical Temporal memory) method, which contributes to simplify index description with vulnerability situational awareness. Finally, inference machine design and inference algorithm are given to construct the knowledge base. The research shows that there is close relationship between evolution of disruption events and changes of disruption area vulnerability index infrastructure, with this vulnerability index infrastructure, explicit knowledge contained in disruption events and tacit knowledge contained in disruption management can be dynamically analyzed based on knowledge base. It contributes to manager's decision in recovering disruption with key factors accurately and dynamically, and reducing cost of disruption management, improve response efficiency.

Key words: knowledge base, vulnerability, HTM, disruption management

中图分类号:

F272.3

萧海东, 陈宁. 基于知识库的应急领域脆弱性指标体系研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(7): 76-81.

XIAO Hai-dong, CHEN Ning. Research on Disruption Area Vulnerability Index Infrastructure based on Knowledge base[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(7): 76-81.

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