自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究

中国管理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (9): 66-73.

自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究

李军, 李向阳, 张佰尚

哈尔滨工业大学管理学院, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150001

收稿日期:2013-07-01 修回日期:2014-02-25 出版日期:2014-09-20 发布日期:2014-09-27
作者简介:李军（1985-），男（汉族），辽宁人，哈尔滨工业大学管理学院，博士研究生，研究方向：应急管理.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（91024028，91024031，913241014）

Study on Critical Infrastructure Network Risk with Natural Disaster

LI Jun, LI Xiang-yang, ZHANG Bai-shang

School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

Received:2013-07-01 Revised:2014-02-25 Online:2014-09-20 Published:2014-09-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 关键基础设施保护是突发事件应急管理的重要对象构成，确定风险和保护排序是其保护机制的基本依据。在自然异动约束下，本文将信息扩散理论的超越概率引入风险分析模型，研究跨区域网络级联失效造成的风险，提出了确定关键基础设施网络构件的风险等级及保护排序的方法。以覆冰灾害下电网为例，研究了电网中不同支路在覆冰灾害下面临风险程度，与基本脆弱点进行对比，验证以异动风险作为保护参考的合理性。

关键词: 自然异动, 关键基础设施, 风险识别, 复杂网络, 级联效应

Abstract: Critical infrastructure protecting is an important part of emergency management, and determining risk and protecting order is the basis of protection mechanism. With the threat of natural disaster, exceeding probability of information diffusion theory is introduced into the risk model to study the cascade effect risk of network about trans-regional critical infrastructure. Further a method is propased to determine the degree of risk and protect order about critical infrastructure network. Taking power grid with ice disasters for example, the risk of network cascade effect is studied, and the rationality of regarding this kind of risk to be as protection reference is verifed.

Key words: nature disaster, critical infrastructure, risk identification, complex network, cascade effect

中图分类号:

X913.4

李军, 李向阳, 张佰尚. 自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(9): 66-73.

LI Jun, LI Xiang-yang, ZHANG Bai-shang. Study on Critical Infrastructure Network Risk with Natural Disaster[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(9): 66-73.

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