网购快递物流服务系统测评的枝模型仿真

中国管理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 72-78.

网购快递物流服务系统测评的枝模型仿真

于宝琴, 武淑萍, 杜广伟

天津财经大学商学院, 天津 300222

收稿日期:2012-05-30 修回日期:2013-09-05 出版日期:2014-12-20 发布日期:2014-12-23
作者简介:于宝琴(1962-),女(汉族),天津人, 天津财经大学商学院,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:信息系统与商务智能.
基金资助:
市教委社科重大项目(2012ZD029);市教育科学规划"十二五"重点课题(CEXII2003)

Branch Model Simulation for Express Logistics Service System Evaluation under Online Shopping

YU Bao-qin, WU Shu-ping, DU Guang-wei

School of Business, Tianjin University of Finance & Economics, Tianjin 300222, China

Received:2012-05-30 Revised:2013-09-05 Online:2014-12-20 Published:2014-12-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以网购环境为背景,运用物流服务理论与系统动力学理论,通过对快递物流服务的流程分析,构建网购快递物流服务系统测评体系,对此体系和物流服务质量这一主变量分别进行了因果关系分析,进而构建了物流服务质量下的配送及时率这一附属变量的系统动力学枝模型,并对模型进行了量纲化检验、敏感性检验以及极端条件测试以证明模型的正确性;在此基础上,将申通、圆通、中通以及韵达四家快递企业的数据运用到Vensim软件对枝模型进行实证仿真并得出以此变量为根据的快递企业排名,为网购快递物流服务的测评提供一种新的方法。

关键词: 网购, 快递物流服务, 因果关系, 系统动力学, 枝模型

Abstract: Under online shopping environment, express logistics service evaluation system was established based on logistics services theory and system dynamics theory through the analysis of the process of express logistics service.For this system and one main variable "logistics services quality",their causal relationship was analyzed;and then the system dynamics branch model of a subsidiary variable"timely delivery rate"from the main variable was established, and the model is proved correct by the dimensionless testing,the sensitivity testing and the extreme conditions testing.On this basis, the data of the four courier companies including Shentong, Yuantong, Zhongtong and Yunda were applied by using the simulation software Vensim in order to confirm the effectiveness of the simulation brand model and courier companies rankings are obtained based on the subsidiary variable. A new method of express logistics service assessment is provided.

Key words: online shopping, express logistics services, causal relationship, system dynamics, branch model

中图分类号:

F253

于宝琴, 武淑萍, 杜广伟. 网购快递物流服务系统测评的枝模型仿真[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(12): 72-78.

YU Bao-qin, WU Shu-ping, DU Guang-wei. Branch Model Simulation for Express Logistics Service System Evaluation under Online Shopping[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(12): 72-78.

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