基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.006

中国管理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 46-52.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.006

基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析

刘婧宇¹, 夏炎¹, 林师模², 吴洁¹, 范英¹

1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心, 北京 100190;
2. 台湾中原大学应用经济模型研究中心, 台湾中坜 32023

收稿日期:2014-08-26 修回日期:2014-11-06 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-24
作者简介:刘婧宇(1988-), 女(汉族), 江苏南通人, 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 博士研究生, 研究方向:金融CGE模型、能源经济.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71210005,71203213)

The Short, Medium and Long Term Effects of Green Credit Policy in China Based on a Financial CGE Model

LIU Jing-yu¹, XIA Yan¹, LIN Shih-mo², WU Jie¹, FAN Ying¹

1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
2. Department of International Business and Center for Applied Economic Modeling, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taiwan 32023, China

Received:2014-08-26 Revised:2014-11-06 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 十二五将节能环保作为一大关键主题, 中国将更多地使用市场经济手段治理环境, 与命令-控制手段互为补充。绿色信贷政策是其中重要的金融政策。本文从绿色信贷政策中对"双高"行业实施惩罚性高利率这一市场化的利率政策入手, 利用中国2007年SAM表, 部分行业主要上市企业年报, 2006年及2007年资金流量表及金融年鉴数据, 建立一个加入金融系统的CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型, 刻画绿色信贷政策的传导路径, 定量测算政策在不同时期的系统性影响。结果发现绿色信贷政策能够较为有效地抑制目标行业的投资行为, 并在短期、中期内能减少造纸业、化工业产出。在长期, 目标行业投资、产出回升, 抵消绿色信贷对抑制目标行业产出的效果。

关键词: 绿色信贷, 金融CGE

Abstract: Market-based policies are implemented to achieve environmental targets in China's 12^th five-year plan. Green credit policy is one of the most important financial policies. In this paper, it is assumed that commercial banks request higher interest rates from the high-emission industries and try to explore mechanism and path of green credit policy with the model, as well as policy effects on industrial and macro economy. A Chinese financial CGE model is applied and data from listing corporation annual reports, real SAM of China, flow of fund tables and Yearbook of Finance of China in 2006 and 2007 are used. It is found that green credit policy is effective in reducing investment of the high-emission industries. And in the short or medium term, it has negative impacts on the production activities of paper and chemical industries but it is not effective on non-metal ores or steel and metals industries.

Key words: green credit, financial CGE

中图分类号:

F832.42

刘婧宇, 夏炎, 林师模, 吴洁, 范英. 基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(4): 46-52.

LIU Jing-yu, XIA Yan, LIN Shih-mo, WU Jie, FAN Ying. The Short, Medium and Long Term Effects of Green Credit Policy in China Based on a Financial CGE Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(4): 46-52.

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基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析

The Short, Medium and Long Term Effects of Green Credit Policy in China Based on a Financial CGE Model

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