石油价格冲击与中国实际经济波动研究——基于开放RBC模型的分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.07.006

中国管理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (7): 45-52.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.07.006

石油价格冲击与中国实际经济波动研究——基于开放RBC模型的分析

曹飞

河南财经政法大学工程管理与房地产学院, 河南郑州 450046

收稿日期:2013-02-05 修回日期:2014-03-24 出版日期:2015-07-20 发布日期:2015-07-22
作者简介:曹飞(1984-),男(汉族),河南南阳人,河南财经政法大学工程管理与房地产学院讲师,厦门大学经济学博士,研究方向:宏观经济学、房地产经济学.

Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis

CAO Fei

School of Engineering Management and Real Estate, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450002, China

Received:2013-02-05 Revised:2014-03-24 Online:2015-07-20 Published:2015-07-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国的石油对外贸易依存度较高,国际油价波动这种外部冲击对经济可能产生各种影响。本文构建了开放经济条件下的RBC(真实经济周期)模型,通过引入石油价格冲击和技术冲击,解释了中国实际经济波动的特征事实,并探讨了石油价格冲击对于中国实际经济波动的作用机制。相较于已有研究,该模型更好地模拟了中国主要宏观经济变量的波动特征。同时,研究发现,除贸易余额冲击外,石油价格冲击对经济也产生负向影响。因此,能源价格改革应遵循循序渐进的原则,防范石油价格波动对实际经济产生较大冲击。

关键词: 经济波动, 开放RBC模型, 石油价格冲击

Abstract: As the China's high trade degree of dependence on foreign oil, the external shocks of international oil price fluctuations may have various effects on the China's economy. Here an open economy model is built under the conditions of the real business cycle, by introducing the oil price shocks and technology shocks, the characteristics of China's actual facts of economic fluctuations are explained and the impact of oil price fluctuationsis explored for the Chinese real economy mechanism. Compared to the existing research, this model simulate the Chinese characteristics of the main macroeconomic variables fluctuate better than other models. Meanwhile, the study found that, in addition to the impact of the trade balance, the oil price shocks on the economy also produced a negative impact. Therefore, the energy price reform should follow the principle of gradual and orderly progress, it's to prevent oil price fluctuations have a greater impact on the real economy.

Key words: economic fluctuations, open RBC model, oil price shocks

中图分类号:

F224
F416

曹飞. 石油价格冲击与中国实际经济波动研究——基于开放RBC模型的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(7): 45-52.

CAO Fei. Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(7): 45-52.

参考文献

[1] Mendoza E G. Real business cycles in a small open economy[J]. The American Economic Review, 1991,81(4):797-818.

[2] Backus D K, Kehoe P J, Kydland F E. International real business cycles[J]. The Journal of Political Economy, 1992,100(4):745-775.

[3] Backus D K, Kehoe P J, Kydland F E. Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: The J-curve?[J]. The American Economic Review, 1994,84(1):84-103.

[4] Stockman A C, Tesar L L. Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: Explaining international co-movements[J]. The American Economic Review, 85(1):168-185.

[5] Kose M A, Yi K M. International trade and business cycles: Is vertical specialization the missing link[J]. The American Economic Review, 2001,91(2):371-375.

[6] Hamilton J D. Oil and the macroeconomy since world warⅡ[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1983,91:228-248.

[7] Fiore F D, Lombardo G, Stebunovs V.Oil price shocks, monetary policy rules and welfare[R]. Working Paper, European Central Bank, 2006.

[8] 卜永祥,靳炎.中国实际经济周期:一个基本解释和理论扩展[J].世界经济,2002,(7):3-11.

[9] 陈昆亭,龚六堂.中国经济增长的周期与波动的研究——引入人力资本后的RBC模型[J].经济学季刊,2004,3(4):803-818.

[10] 黄赜琳.中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应——基于三部门RBC模型的实证分析[J].经济研究,2005(6):27-39.

[11] 孙工声.中国宏观经济波动:内部调整还是外部冲击?[J].金融研究,2009,353(11):60-73.

[12] 王义中,金雪军.中国经济波动的外部因素:1992-2008[J].统计研究,2009,26(8):10-15.

[13] 吴振信,薛冰,王书平. 基于VAR模型的油价波动对我国经济影响分析[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(1):22-28.

[14] 李浩,胡永刚,马知遥.国际贸易与中国的实际经济周期--基于封闭与开放经济的RBC模型比较分析[J].经济研究,2007,(5):17-26.

[15] 李浩,钟昌标.贸易顺差与中国的实际经济周期分析:基于开放的RBC模型的研究[J].世界经济,2008,(9):60-65.

[16] 陈鹏.基于小型开放经济RBC模型的中国经济波动模拟分析[J].财贸研究,2011,22(1):1-7.

[17] 林伯强,牟敦国.能源价格对宏观经济的影响——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)的分析[J].经济研究,2008,(11):88-101.

[18] 魏巍贤,高中元,彭翔宇.能源冲击与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析[J].金融研究,2012(1):51-64.

[19] 孙宁华,江学迪.能源价格与中国宏观经济:动态模型与校准分析[J].南开经济研究,2012,(2):20-32.

[20] 中国人民银行营业管理部课题组.基于生产函数法的潜在产出估计、产出缺口及与通货膨胀的关系:1978-2009[J].金融研究,2011,(3):42-50.

[21] Backus D K, Kehoe P J. International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles[J]. The American Economic Review, 1992,82(4):864-888.

[22] Greenwood J, Hercowitz Z, Huffman G W. Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle[J]. American Economic Review, 1988,78(3):402-417.

[23] Correia I, Neves J, Rebelo S. Businesscycles in a small open economy[J].European Economic Review,1995,39(4):1089-1113.

[24] Schmitt-Grohé S, Uribe M. Closing small open economy models[J]. Journal of International Economics, 61(1):163-185.

[25] 王小鲁,樊纲.中国经济增长的可持续性——跨世纪的回顾与展望[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2000.

[26] 陈宇峰.国际油价冲击与中国宏观经济波动的非对称时段效应[J].金融研究,2011,(5):97-99.

石油价格冲击与中国实际经济波动研究——基于开放RBC模型的分析

Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	李霜, 简志宏, 郑俊瑶. 石油价格冲击与经济波动风险最小化的货币供应机制分析 [J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (2): 26-33.
[2]	简志宏, 朱柏松, 李霜. 动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (1): 30-42.