具有风险规避销售商的供应链最优回购契约

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在销售商风险规避下，运用CVaR方法研究了供应商在直营渠道（集中式供应链）和非直营渠道（分散式供应链）下回购契约的设计问题。刻画了集中式供应链下回购契约完成渠道协调的充要条件，求解了分散式供应链的最优回购契约。比较分析了集中式和分散式供应链下回购契约的差异，得到以下结论：相对于集中式供应链，供应商在分散式供应链中趋向于设定更高的批发价格，或更低的回购价格。讨论了销售商的风险规避度对契约设计和供应商收益的影响，研究表明：销售商越规避风险，供应商的收益越低。最后提供一个案例讨论了模型在现实中的应用。

关键词: 集中式供应链, 分散式供应链, 回购契约, 条件风险价值

Abstract: In a supply chain led by a supplier, the supplier always can employ contract mechanisms to coordinate the supply chain(SC) so as to improve efficiency of the channel. In many cases, the supplier can make use of different kinds of distribution channels, such as direct channels and indirect channels, hereafter refered to as centralized SC and decentralized SC respectively, to deliver commordities to the terminal market. Does there exist differences in contract arrangement in the two channels?The issue on coordination of the SC is investgated via buy-back contracts, where the supplier has a direct channel and an indirect channel, both with a risk-averse retailer. A model including two stages of game is constructed, where the aversion of the retailers are measured by the conditionally risk-at-value (CVaR), and the supplier maximizes expected profits of the entire SC and its own, respectively, in the centralized SC and the decentralized SC. The model is solved out by backwards solving techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions are characterized to coordinate the channel via buy-back contracts in the centralized SC. The optimal buy-back contracts are solved out in the decentralized SC. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is presented on the buy-back contracts between the two channels. It shows that the supplier tends to set a higher wholesale price or a lower buyback price in the decentralized SC than that in the centralized SC, which leads to that the retailer orders less than the optimal order quantity for the sake of the entire SC. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is made on the impact of the retailers' risk aversion on parameters of buy-back contracts, the retailer's ordering decision and the supplier's payoffs. It shows that the supplier always tends to set a lower wholesale price, given the buy-back price, and attains a smaller expected profit, whether in the centralized SC or in the decentralized one, if the retailer becomes more risk-averse. Therefore, the supplier is more willing to cooperate with retailers with a low risk aversion degree. Finally, an example of Li Ning Co is used to illustrate application of the theoretical model in the real world. Numerical tests are exerted to verify the conclusions including:(1)how strategies of the channel members, and payoff of the entire SC and its members change with the optimal contracts varing, (2)how the risk aversion of the retailers affect strategies of the channel members and payoff of the entire SC and its members, (3)how to determine the optimal contract parameters, and so forth. To consider simultaneously centralized SCs and decentralized SCs, not only a new research perspective is introduced for contract coordination literature theoretically, but also managerial insights are provided for supply chain contracting on the practical level.

Key words: centralized supply chain, decentralized supply chain, buy back contract, CVaR

中图分类号:

C934
F274

代建生, 秦开大. 具有风险规避销售商的供应链最优回购契约[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(7): 72-81.

DAI Jian-sheng, QIN Kai-da. Optimal Buy-back Contracts for a Supply Chain with a Risk-averse Retailer[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(7): 72-81.

参考文献

[1] Spengler J J. Vertical restraints and antitrust policy[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1950, 58(4):347-352.

[2] Tsay A A, Nahmias S, Agrawal N. Modelling supply chain contracts:A review[M]//Tayur S, Ganeshcon R,Magazine M. Quantitative models for supply chain management. New York:Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999:299-336.

[3] Pasternack B A. Optimal pricing and return policies for perishable commodities[J]. Marketing Science, 2008, 27(1):133-140.

[4] 刘家国, 吴冲. 基于报童模型的两级供应链回购契约协调研究[J].中国管理科学, 2010, 18(4):73-78.

[5] 申成霖, 张新鑫, 卿志琼. 服务水平约束下基于顾客策略性退货的供应链契约协调研究[J].中国管理科学, 2010, 18(4):56-64.

[6] 吴忠和, 陈宏, 赵千. 非对称信息下闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(6):97-106.

[7] Xu Guangye, Dan Bin, Zhang Xumei, et al. Coordinating a dual-channel supply chain with risk-averse under a two-way revenue sharing contract[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2014, 147(A):171-179.

[8] 代建生, 孟卫东. 风险规避下具有促销效应的收益共享契约[J]. 管理科学学报, 2014, 17(5):25-34.

[9] 李绩才, 周永务, 肖旦, 等. 考虑损失厌恶一对多型供应链的收益共享契约[J]. 管理科学学报, 2013, 16(2):71-82.

[10] Chen F, Xu Minghui, Zhang G. A risk-averse newsvendor model under the CVaR decision criterion[J]. Operations Research, 2009, 57(4):1040-1044.

[11] Lau H S, Lau A H L. Manufacturer's pricing strategy and return policy for a single-period commodity[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1999,116(2):291-304.

[12] Webster S, Weng K. A risk-free perishable item returns policy[J].Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2000, 2(1):100-106.

[13] Gan Xianghua, Sethi S, Yan Houmin.Channel coordination with a risk-neutral supplier and a downside-risk-averse retailer[J]. Production and Operations Management, 2005, 14(1):80-89.

[14] Choi T M, Li Duan, Yan Houmin. Mean-variance analysis of a single supplier and retailer supply chain under a returns policy[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2008, 184(1):356-376.

[15] 闻卉, 曹晓刚, 黎继子. 基于CVaR的供应链回购策略优化与协调研究[J]. 系统工程学报, 2013, 28(2):211-217.

[16] 代建生, 孟卫东. 基于CVaR的供应链联合促销的回购契约协调研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(7):53-61.

[17] 代建生, 孟卫东. 销售努力和风险厌恶下供应链的回购契约[J]. 系统工程学报, 2016, 30(4):519-529.

[18] 代建生, 孟卫东, 范波. 风险规避供应链的回购契约安排[J]. 管理科学学报, 2015,18(5):47-57.

[19] Wei Ying, Choi T M. Mean-variance analysis of supply chains under wholesale pricing and profit sharing schemes[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2010, 204(2):255-262.

[20] Aydin G, Porteus E L. Manufacturer-to-retailer versus manufacturer-to-consumer rebates in a supply chain[M]//Agarwal N, Smith S A. Retail supply chain management. New York:Springer, 2009:237-270.

[21] Caliskan-Demirag O, Chen Youhua, Li Jianbin. Customer and retailer rebates under risk aversion[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2011, 133(2):736-750.

[22] Ogryczak W, Ruszczynski A. Dual stochastic dominance and related mean-risk models[J]. SIAM Journal of Optimization, 2002, 13(1):60-78.

[23] Artzner P, Delbaen F, Eber J M, et al. Coherent measures of risk[J]. Mathematical Finance, 1999,9(3):203-228.

[24] 简惠云, 许民利. 基于CVaR的供应链契约及其实验研究[J]. 管理科学学报,2015,(10):56-68.

[25] 安智宇, 周晶. 考虑供应商违约风险的CVaR最优订货模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2009, 17(2):66-70.

[26] 林强, 叶飞, 陈晓明. 随机弹性需求条件下基于CVaR与收益共享契约的供应链决策模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2011, 31(12):2296-2307.

[27] Dai Jiansheng, Meng Weidong. A risk-averse newsvendor model under marketing-dependency and price-dependency[J]. International Journal of Production Economics. 2015, 160:220-229.

[28] Rockafellar R T, Uryasev S. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk[J]. Journal of Risk, 2000, 2(3):21-42.

[29] Rockafellar R T, Uryasev S. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2002, 26(7):1443-1471.

[30] Pflug GC. Some remarks on the value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk[M]//Uryasev S.Probabilistic constrained optimization:Methodology and applications. Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000:1-11.

[31] Gotoh J, Takano Y. Newsvendor solutions via conditional value-at-risk minimization[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007,179(1):80-96.

[32] Kunter M. Coordination via cost and revenue sharing in manufacturer-retailer channels[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012, 216(2):477-486.

[33] Lariviere M A, Porteus E L. Selling to the newsvendor:An analysis of price-only contracts[J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2001, 3(4):293-305.

[34] Lariviere M A. A note on probability distributions with increasing generalized failure rates[J]. Operations Research, 2006, 54(3):602-604.