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中国管理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (8): 154-163.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.08.019

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

面向多灾点需求的应急资源调度博弈模型及优化

杨继君1,2, 佘廉1   

  1. 1. 国家行政学院应急管理培训中心, 北京 100089;
    2. 广西行政学院应急管理培训部, 广西 南宁 530021
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-15 修回日期:2016-01-06 出版日期:2016-08-20 发布日期:2016-08-24
  • 通讯作者: 杨继君(1973-),男(土家族),湖南石门人,国家行政学院应急管理培训中心博士后,英国纽卡斯尔大学访问学者,博士,副教授,研究方向:应急管理与博弈论,E-mail:peteryang708@163.com. E-mail:peteryang708@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金重点资助项目(16AGL017);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划(91324203);中国博士后基金项目(2015M570995)

Game Model and Optimization Based on Resource Requirements of Multiple Crisis Locations

YANG Ji-jun1,2, SHE Lian1   

  1. 1. National Institute of Emergency Management, Chinese Academy of Governance, Beijing 100089, China;
    2. Department of Emergency Management, Guangxi Institute of Administration, Nanning 530021, China
  • Received:2015-07-15 Revised:2016-01-06 Online:2016-08-20 Published:2016-08-24

摘要: 非常规突发事件爆发后经常会造成多个灾点,而各灾点的需求往往是不同的,单独的应急资源中心很难同时满足这种要求,因此如何把多个应急资源中心所储备的应急资源公平合理地调配到各个灾点成为应急决策者亟待解决的现实问题。本文首先描述了各灾点对应急资源需求变化的动态过程即按照应急资源需求信息的变化将整个应急资源调度过程划分成若干阶段,在此基础上构建了基于多灾点多阶段的应急资源调度过程理论模型。随后以博弈论为工具,在进行一系列模型假设和确定各灾点灾情的前提下,建立面向多灾点需求的应急资源博弈调度模型,并采用改进的蚁群算法进行求解,实现对各灾点以最小的“虚拟成本”进行所需应急资源的调度。最后的模型仿真测试和算例分析验证了所建模型的有效性和可行性。该模型与算法也为商业物流中的资源配送提供了新的解决方案和实现途径。

关键词: 非常规突发事件, 资源需求, 调度博弈, 改进蚁群算法

Abstract: There would always be a lot of crisis locations when an unconventional emergency breaks out. The requirements of each crisis location are usually different, which is difficult to meet the requirements of multiple crisis locations for a single resource centre. So it is a practical problem to be solved urgently by decision makers how to fairly and reasonably schedule emergency resources for multiple crisis locations. According to the demand information, the dynamic process of emergency resources scheduling for multiple crisis locations are described, in which the emergency resources scheduling process are divided into several stages according to the change of demand information for multiple crisis locations. On this basis, a theoretical model of multi-stage emergency resources scheduling process is designed for multiple crisis locations. After a series of assumptions are made, the game model based on resource requirements of multiple crisis locations is set up by using game theory according to the degree of disaster, and the improved ant colony optimization (ACO) is introduced to seek out the solution in order to schedule emergency resources for multiple crisis locations according to the minimum virtual cost. Simulation tests and numerical analyses are given to demonstrate the feasibility and availability of the model. The model and algorithm can also provide a new solution and approach for the distribution of resources in business logistics.

Key words: unconventional emergency, resource requirements, game scheduling, improved ACO

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