需求不确定下承诺交货时间和产能决策

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.009

中国管理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (11): 73-80.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.009

需求不确定下承诺交货时间和产能决策

谢祥添¹, 张毕西²

1. 广东开放大学/广东理工职业学院, 广东广州 510091;
2. 广东工业大学管理学院, 广东广州 510520

收稿日期:2015-03-13 修回日期:2015-08-04 出版日期:2016-11-20 发布日期:2017-01-23
作者简介:谢祥添(1981-),男(汉族),广东清远人,广东开放大学讲师,博士生,研究方向:管理科学与工程,E-mail:122627748@qq.com.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71271060，70971026）；广东省自然科学基金资助项目（S2012010009278，2014A030310285）；广东理工职业学院资助项目（1610）

Promised Lead Time and Capacity Decision-Making Based on Demand is Uncertain

XIE Xiang-tian¹, ZHANG Bi-xi²

1. The open University of Guangdong/Guangdong Polytechnic Institute, Guangzhou 510091, China;
2. School of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510520, China

Received:2015-03-13 Revised:2015-08-04 Online:2016-11-20 Published:2017-01-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在网上定制的市场中，需求具有数量和时间两方面的不确定性。本文提出同时考虑需求量具有承诺交货时间敏感性和随机性，采用作业成本法建立以期望利润为目标函数，以承诺交货时间和产能为决策变量的模型。通过模型的分析得到了相互递推的最优承诺交货时间和最优产能数学表达式。在此基础上，运用排队理论建立了以承诺交货时间可靠性为限制条件的M/M/1决策模型。通过模型分析，证明了模型是凹规划，给出了最优承诺交货时间和最优产能满足的方程组。最后，通过算例的分析可知最优承诺交货时间和最优产能受承诺交货时间可靠性限制，而且随着承诺交货时间可靠性的提高，最优承诺交货时间是递增的，最优产能和最优期望利润是递减的。研究表明：结合承诺交货时间可靠性确定最优承诺交货时间和最优产能有助于提高产能的利用率和交货时间的准确性。

关键词: 不确定需求, 产能, 承诺交货时间, M/M/1

Abstract: In the market of online-customized products, demands possess uncertainty in both amount and time.In this paper, a promised lead time and capacity decision-making model is proposed by taking expected profit as the objective function with the Activity Based Costing, considering the demands are sensitivity of promised lead time and stochastic. A recursive mathematical expression of the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity is obtained by analyzing the model. On this basis, building up the M/M/1 model by taking the reliability of promised lead time as limiting condition with the queuing theory. It is proved that the M/M/1 model is Concave Programming, and equations of the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity are obtained. At last, through numerical example the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity are restricted by the reliability of promised lead time, and with the improvement of the reliability of promised lead time, the optimal promised lead time is increasing; the optimal capacity and the optimal expected profit are decreasing. The research shows that the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity are got through combining with the reliability of the promised lead time, which can improve the utilization rate of capacity and the accuracy of lead time.

Key words: uncertain demand, capacity, promised lead time, M/M/1

中图分类号:

C934

谢祥添, 张毕西. 需求不确定下承诺交货时间和产能决策[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(11): 73-80.

XIE Xiang-tian, ZHANG Bi-xi. Promised Lead Time and Capacity Decision-Making Based on Demand is Uncertain[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(11): 73-80.

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需求不确定下承诺交货时间和产能决策

Promised Lead Time and Capacity Decision-Making Based on Demand is Uncertain

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