关键词: 能源消费, Logistic模型, GDP, 微调制

Abstract: Energy resources are the base of nationaleconomic development and the essentials of human daily life. As the demands of all countries in the world on the energy resources increase, the competition for the energy resources are becoming more and more intensive. It is vital to collect and analysis the energy consumption data of the major countries around the world so that the government could make correct decision on the future national energy consumption using a scientific prediction model. Not similar to the time series commonly used, an adjusted Logistic model, which is based on the classical Logistic model of national energy annual consumption, is founded in this paper by introduceing a factor of the GDP growth ratio The adjusted Logistic model can be considered as a result of the classical logistic model modulated with the GDP growth ratio. Three different numerical models derived from the original adjusted Logistic model are the adjusted analytic model, dynamic differential model and static differential model. Then, the study and verification, which are based on the real statistic data of the energy annual consumption of USA from 1980 to 2010, shows that the fitted and prediction data are in good agreement with the empirical results. The simulation curve is fitted very well with the energy consumption fluctuation. According to the simulation and analysis results in this paper, a positive relevance between the national energy annual consumption and the national economics are shown directive in the analytic model. The relative prediction errors on 2011 and 2012 using the static differential model are only 0.63% and 3.84%, respectively.

Key words: energy consumption, logistic model, GDP, slight modulation