基于鲁棒优化的突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0945

中国管理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 1-8.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0945

• 论文 • 下一篇

基于鲁棒优化的突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略研究

蔡健平¹, 王晶¹, 焦子豪²

1.北京工商大学电商与物流学院，北京100048； 2.北京工商大学国际经管学院，北京100048

收稿日期:2021-05-13 修回日期:2021-10-06 出版日期:2022-07-20 发布日期:2022-08-05
通讯作者: 王晶(1982-)，男(回族)，河北邯郸人，北京工商大学电商与物流学院,教授，博士生导师，研究方向：应急物流、公共管理与公共政策，Email：wangjingjob2010@126.com. E-mail:wangjingjob2010@126.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL224)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(72101008)；首都流通业研究基地开放课题资助项目(JD-KFKT-2021-003)；2021年研究生科研能力提升计划资助项目

Precise Screening Strategy of Public Health Emergency Based on Robust Optimization

CAI Jian-ping¹, WANG Jing¹, JIAO Zi-hao²

1. School of E-commerce and Logistics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China；2. School of International Economics and Management, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China

Received:2021-05-13 Revised:2021-10-06 Online:2022-07-20 Published:2022-08-05
Contact: 王晶 E-mail:wangjingjob2010@126.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “精准筛查”是落实突发公共卫生事件精准防控工作的基础保障和重要手段，但是如何科学合理地制定突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略尚未开展深入研究。本文根据传染病传播机理，将待检测群体进行分类，引入“检测效用”刻画各类人群在不同时间检测对突发公共卫生事件传播扩散的抑制程度，建立以检测效用最大化为目标的鲁棒优化模型，并将其转化为易求解的鲁棒等价模型，确定最优的筛查方案。最后通过算例仿真验证模型及其转化方法的可行性和有效性，为突发公共卫生事件的精准筛查策略提供了理论指导和决策支持。

关键词: 突发公共卫生事件；精准筛查策略；检测效用；鲁棒优化

Abstract: Faced with the severity of public health emergencies, particularly the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), “precise screening” is the important means to implement the precise prevention and control of public health emergencies. However, how to scientifically and reasonably develop precise screening strategies for public health emergencies in order to not only quickly cut off the transmission route of the epidemic but also avoid the negative impact of excessive epidemic screening on the social economy? By classifying the population and introducing the “testing utility”, the precise screening strategy is studied, which will help prevent and control the public health emergencies in the future.

Key words: public health emergency; precise screening strategy; testing utility; robust optimization

中图分类号:

C934

蔡健平, 王晶, 焦子豪. 基于鲁棒优化的突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(7): 1-8.

CAI Jian-ping, WANG Jing, JIAO Zi-hao. Precise Screening Strategy of Public Health Emergency Based on Robust Optimization[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(7): 1-8.

参考文献

［1］国务院联防联控机制. 关于科学防治精准施策分区分级做好新冠肺炎疫情防控工作的指导意见［EB/OL］.(2020-02-18) ［2021-05-17］. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/18/content_5480514.htm.Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council. Guiding opinions on scientific prevention and control, precise policy and grades of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control［EB/OL］.(2020-02-18) ［2021-05-17］. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/18/content_5480514.htm.
［2］ Alberto S. Optimising the assignment of swabs and reagent for PCR testing during a viral epidemic［J］. Omega, 2020, DOI:10.1016/j.omega.2020.102341.
［3］张国清. 公共危机管理和政府责任——以 SARS 疫情治理为例［J］. 管理世界, 2003,19(12): 42-50.Zhang Guoqing. Public crisis management and government responsibility: A case study of SARS epidemic management［J］. Management World, 2003,19(12): 42-50.
［4］ Liu Ming, Xu Xifen, Cao Jie, et al. Integrated planning for public health emergencies: A modified model for controlling H1N1 pandemic［J］. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2020, 71(5): 748-761.
［5］ Buyuktahtakm E, des-Bordes E, Kibis E Y. A new epidemics logistics model: Insights into controlling the Ebola virus disease in West Africa［J］. European Journal of Operational Research, 2018, 265 (3): 1046-1063.
［6］杨子晖, 陈雨恬, 张平淼. 重大突发公共事件下的宏观经济冲击、金融风险传导与治理应对［J］. 管理世界, 2020, 36(5): 13-35.Yang Zihui, Chen Yutian, Zhang Pingmiao. Macroeconomic shock, financial risk transmission and governance response under major public emergencies［J］. Management World, 2020, 36(5): 13-35.
［7］刘德海, 王维国, 孙康. 基于演化博弈的重大突发公共卫生事件情景预测模型与防控措施［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(5): 937-946.Liu Dehai, Wang Weiguo, Sun Kang. Scenario forecasting model and prevention—control measurements of important public health event based evolutionary game［J］. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2012, 32(5): 937-946.
［8］李勇建, 王循庆, 乔晓娇. 基于广义随机Petri网的重大传染病传播演化模型研究［J］. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(3): 74-81.Li Yongjian, Wang Xunqing, QiaoXiaojiao. Spread model of major infectious disease based on generalized stochastic Petri nets［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(3): 74-81.
［9］ Yaesoubi R, Cohen T. Generalized Markov models of infectious disease spread: A novel framework for developing dynamic health policies［J］. European Journal of Operational Research, 2011, 215 (3): 679-687.
［10］桑茂盛, 丁一, 包铭磊, 等. 基于新冠病毒特征及防控措施的传播动力学模型［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2021, 41(1): 124-133.Sang Maosheng, Ding Yi, Bao Minglei, et al. Propagation dynamics model considering the characteristics of 2019-nCoV and prevention-control measurements［J］. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2021, 41(1): 124-133.
［11］ Strogatz SH. Exploring complex networks［J］. Nature, 2001, 410(6825): 268-276.
［12］原云霄, 王丽宁, 王宝海, 等. 中国传染病集聚与扩散的空间计量分析——基于空间面板数据［J］. 数学的实践与认识, 2020, 50(21): 144-150.Yuan Yunxiao, Wang Lining, Wang Baohai, et al. Spatial econometric analysis of the agglomeration and spread of infectious diseases in China: Based on spatial panel data［J］. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2020, 50(21): 144-150.
［13］梅珊, 何华, 朱一凡. 空气传播传染病城市扩散建模［J］. 管理评论, 2016, 28(8): 158-166.Mei Shan, He Hua, Zhu Yifan. Modeling the spreading of airborne infectious diseases in a city［J］. Management Review, 2016, 28(8): 158-166.
［14］陈竺. 中国公共卫生的现状与未来［J］. 管理评论, 2004, 16(2): 3-6+9.Chen Zhu. Current situation and future of public health in China［J］. Management Review, 2004, 16(2): 3-6+9.
［15］姜长云, 姜惠宸. 新冠肺炎疫情防控对国家应急管理体系和能力的检视［J］. 管理世界, 2020, 36(8): 8-18.Jiang Changyun, Jiang Huichen. The examination of the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic on national emergency management and capacity［J］. Management World, 2020, 36(8): 8-18.
［16］华生, 蔡倩, 汲铮, 等. 中国传染病防控预警机制探究——来自新冠病毒疫情早期防控中的启示［J］. 管理世界, 2020, 36(4): 1-12.Hua Sheng, Cai Qian, Ji Zheng, et al. Research on early warning mechanism for prevention and control of infectious diseases in China: Implication from novel coronavirus epidemic prevention and control［J］. Management World, 2020, 36(4): 1-12.
［17］吕吉云. 军队传染病防控能力生成模式评估指标体系构建及应用研究［J］. 管理评论, 2015, 27(5): 114-120+156.Lu Jiyun. Research on the evaluation criteria for generating pattern of PLA’s ability to prevent and control of infectious diseases［J］. Management Review, 2015, 27(5): 114-120+156.
［18］欧阳桃花, 郑舒文, 程杨. 构建重大突发公共卫生事件治理体系：基于中国情景的案例研究［J］. 管理世界, 2020, 36(8): 19-32.Ouyang Taohua, Zheng Shuwen, Cheng Yang. The construction of a governance system for large-scale public health emergency: A case study based on the Chinese scenario［J］. Management World, 2020, 36(8): 19-32.
［19］周丽萍, 王佳, 王思瑶, 等. 传染病突发公共卫生事件中疫情筛查防控管理［J］. 海军医学杂志, 2020, 41(4): 370-372.Zhou Liping, Wang Jia, Wang Siyao, et al. Epidemic screening, prevention, control and management in public health emergencies of infectious diseases［J］. Journal of Navy Medicine, 2020, 41(4): 370-372.
［20］ Bertsimas D, Sim M. The price of robustness［J］. Operations Research, 2004, 52(1): 35-53.
［21］ Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome［J］. Science, 2003, 300(5627):1966-1970.
［22］ Tuite A R, Greer A L, Whelan M, et al. Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza［J］. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 2010, 182(2): 131-136.
［23］ Rainisch G, Undurraga E A, Chowell G. A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions［J］. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2020(96): 376-383.

[1]	李伟伟,易平涛,王露. 基于行为特征分析的情境化评价方法及应用[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(10): 171-180.
[2]	陈雪龙,张钟,李悦. 临机决策视角下的非常规突发事件应急处置方案生成[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(10): 109-122.
[3]	胡婉婷,丁晶晶,梁樑. 基于期权代储协议的应急物资政企联合储备模型研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(9): 101-112.
[4]	邹清明,刘春,曹裕. 碳交易机制下考虑公平关切产出不确定的低碳供应链减排与融资策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(9): 248-259.
[5]	陈强,荣俊美,常旭华,宫磊. 考虑奖惩差异的高校科研考评及专利审查策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(9): 313-322.
[6]	聂如欣,田章朋,梁鹤鸣. 社会网络环境下基于行为管理的大群体共识决策方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(9): 35-47.
[7]	陈璐,徐海燕,张瑾木子,何亮. 基于图模型理论的模糊权力不对称冲突研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(9): 59-69.
[8]	沈种,李星梅. 多种协同关系共同作用下的项目组合决策问题研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 139-148.
[9]	李晓娜,马卫民. 需求不确定下高耗水企业节水服务外包决策研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 230-240.
[10]	孙向彦,曲薪池. 药占比管制下过度医疗行为多阶段动态演化研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 308-321.
[11]	李想,李亚男,马红光. 考虑乘客效用的多元化共享出行平台协同定价策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(7): 172-180.
[12]	杜恒,卢珂. 供给短缺下考虑消费异质性的零售商定价策略[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(7): 201-211.
[13]	蒋兰娟,陈武华,陈晓红. 考虑医保报销与交付时间的医药零售商定价及渠道模式选择研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(7): 236-247.
[14]	杨荣庆,唐孝安,张强,黄挺. 分布式乘性偏好环境下考虑决策者偏好调整意愿的最优-最劣多准则决策方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(7): 65-75.
[15]	张磊,叶鑫. 考虑风险态度和自信行为的应急响应等级决策方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(6): 120-128.

基于鲁棒优化的突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略研究

Precise Screening Strategy of Public Health Emergency Based on Robust Optimization

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0