城市资源配置、人口集聚与房地产价格上涨——来自全国95个城市的经验证据

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2253

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 城市资源配置水平的差异引致人口流动和人口集聚是中国房地产价格上涨的基础性因素。本文通过构建一个比较静态模型，首先探究了城市资源配置、人口集聚影响房地产价格的理论机理；其次，通过构建房地产价格上涨趋势指数和城市资源配置指数，利用2009-2018年中国95个城市的年度面板数据，实证研究城市资源配置水平、人口集聚对房地产价格上涨的影响机制。研究结果表明：城市资源配置水平和人口集聚对房地产价格上涨均产生了显著的正向影响效应；人口集聚在城市资源配置影响房地产价格上涨中起到中介作用，城市资源配置水平越高，越能吸引人口向该城市迁徙并形成人口集聚，导致房地产价格上涨，且因城市的资源配置层级、行政级别和地理区位呈现出显著的异质性。该研究结论为中国房地产价格有效调控提供了新的经验证据。

关键词: 城市资源配置, 人口集聚, 房地产价格

Abstract: Differences in the level of urban resource allocation lead to population mobility and population agglomeration, which is a main factor for the rise of China’s real estate prices. From the perspective of the natural attributes and basic functions of commercial housing, the growth of urban population also plays a role in promoting the rise of real estate prices.Higher levels of public resources motivate the population to move from low resource allocation areas to the high allocation area. The resulting resource competition generated in the process of population agglomeration will inevitably lead to increasing real estate prices in the area.Under the background of increasing domestic and international uncertainties and the downward pressure on the macro economy, this paper reveals the formation mechanism of real estate price changes and the underlying driving factors which play an important role in the implementation of China’s current real estate market policies aimed at stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations and effective regulation of real estate prices.

Key words: urban resource allocation, population agglomeration, real estate price

中图分类号:

刘凤根, 王一丁, 颜建军, 张敏. 城市资源配置、人口集聚与房地产价格上涨——来自全国95个城市的经验证据[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(7): 31-46.

LIU Feng-gen, WANG Yi-ding, YAN Jian-jun, ZHANG Min. Urban Resource Allocation, Population Agglomeration and Rising Real Estate Prices——An Empirical Evidence from 95 Cities in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(7): 31-46.

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