关键词: 应急物资分配, 不确定理论, 风险感知函数, 人工蜂群算法

Abstract: In the emergency rescue of large-scale emergencies, how to take into account the psychological factors of victims and reasonably and efficiently allocate limited resources in multi-period dynamic allocation in uncertain environment is an important subject to be studied urgently. In this paper, the prospect theory is integrated into the scheduling problem, and the risk perception function is established to describe the psychological risk perception of the victims. In the view of the uncertainties existing in the early stage of emergency, when the data is difficult to obtain, the estimated values of the parameters are obtained through expert estimation. Considering its subjective uncertainty, the uncertain variables are introduced to describe them. A multi-objective mixed integer uncertain programming model is established to minimize psychological risk perception and maximize time satisfaction of victims and the deterministic equivalent form of the model is obtained based on uncertainty theory. The model is solved by designing an improved artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, numerical examples show that the model can effectively control transportation costs while considering timeliness, fairness and psychology of the victims. Decision makers can choose their attitudes towards cost and psychological loss of victims through different combinations of decision preference coefficients, so as to form a multi-period emergency supplies distribution scheme.

Key words: emergency material allocation, uncertainty theory, risk perception function, artificial bee colony algorithm