中国管理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 265-276.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1242
李芮萌1, 杨乃定2, 刘慧3, 张延禄2
收稿日期:
2020-06-30
修回日期:
2020-11-08
出版日期:
2022-10-20
发布日期:
2022-10-12
通讯作者:
杨乃定(1964-),男(汉族),陕西西安人,西北工业大学管理学院,教授、博士生导师,研究方向:管理系统工程、项目管理、应急管理等,Email:naidingy@nwpu.edu.cn.
E-mail:naidingy@nwpu.edu.cn
基金资助:
LI Rui-meng1, YANG Nai-ding2, LIU Hui3, ZHANG Yan-lu2
Received:
2020-06-30
Revised:
2020-11-08
Online:
2022-10-20
Published:
2022-10-12
Contact:
杨乃定
E-mail:naidingy@nwpu.edu.cn
摘要: 基于产品部件间的设计关联和组织产品间的镜像假设,构建一对一依赖的复杂产品研发项目组织-产品相依网络模型。在此基础上,构建考虑组织失效和组织间协调的复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播动力学模型,并针对由少数部件发生设计变更风险事件引发的复杂产品研发项目相依网络上的设计变更风险传播进行数值仿真。结果表明:组织失效和组织协调不足均会导致设计变更风险的积累,使得设计变更风险传播经历缓慢传播、失控传播后达到相对稳定状态;组织设计能力充足且组织间协调充分时设计变更风险传播不发生。复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播受到部件设计变更风险容量的显著影响,存在设计变更风险传播阈值η*3使得设计变更风险传播不发生;传播阈值η*3与初始变更源规模正相关;研发组织的冗余设计能力存在作用条件,使得传播阈值η*3保持在最低水平。研究成果完善了项目管理中风险动态分析框架,为提高复杂产品研发项目抵御设计变更风险的能力提供建议。
中图分类号:
李芮萌, 杨乃定, 刘慧, 张延禄. 考虑组织失效与协调的复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(10): 265-276.
LI Rui-meng, YANG Nai-ding, LIU Hui, ZHANG Yan-lu. Design Change Risk Propagation for Complex Product Development Projects Considering Organizational Failure and Cooperation[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(10): 265-276.
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