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需求不确定下的航运企业区块链采纳时机决策研究

武杰1,刘家国2   

  1. 1. 大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院
    2. 大连海事大学
  • 收稿日期:2022-12-27 修回日期:2023-03-30 出版日期:2023-06-14 发布日期:2023-06-14
  • 通讯作者: 刘家国

Research on Blockchain Adoption Timing Decision for Shipping Companies under Demand Uncertainty

  • Received:2022-12-27 Revised:2023-03-30 Online:2023-06-14 Published:2023-06-14

摘要: 摘要:针对区块链在航运业的应用问题,以采纳区块链前后航运企业间竞争形式的变化为切入点,构建了不同竞争场景下的时机决策模型,在考虑货运需求不确定的市场环境下,基于实物期权理论,探究了航运企业的区块链采纳时机策略,并进一步通过拓展分析验证了模型的鲁棒性。研究表明:价格竞争会使得航运企业的区块链采纳时机提前,相反,服务竞争会使得航运企业的区块链采纳时机推后。面对不同服务水平的竞争对手和货运需求环境,航运企业的区块链采纳时机不同;在不同的技术环境和价格竞争环境下,航运企业合理的区块链采纳时机策略被分为多个区域。政府补贴能够激励航运企业提前采纳区块链,过高的区块链运营成本使得航运企业的区块链采纳时机发生转变。

Abstract: Abstract: Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology, its decentralized, paperless, open, and transparent features can increase the trust among shipping companies and improve the efficiency of shipping business clearance, which is popular among modern shipping companies. At present, some shipping companies have already carried out the practice of blockchain, for example, 14 Japanese companies, such as MOL, NYK, and K-LINE, have jointly established a trade data-sharing platform with blockchain, aiming to improve the transparency of information among companies. Shipping giants Maersk and IBM have also cooperated in blockchain as a way to improve the service level of the shipping business. In this background, aiming at the application problem of blockchain in shipping companies, this paper takes the change of competition form among shipping companies before and after the adoption of blockchain as the entry point, constructs the timing decision model under different competition scenarios, explores the blockchain adoption timing strategy of shipping companies based on real options theory under the market environment considering the uncertainty of freight demand, and further verifies the robustness of the model through extended analysis. It shows that price competition will lead to earlier blockchain adoption by shipping companies, and conversely, service competition will lead to later blockchain adoption by shipping companies. Further discussion reveals that the blockchain adoption timing of shipping companies differs in the face of competitors with different service levels and freight demand environments. The reasonable blockchain adoption timing strategies of shipping companies are divided into multiple regions under different technical and price competition environments. Finally, the extended analysis reveals that government subsidies can incentivize shipping companies to adopt blockchain early, and excessive blockchain operating costs can shift the timing of blockchain adoption by shipping companies.