提出实证驱动的定性模拟模型,研究价值链中增值战略匹配优化问题。通过问卷调研获取基于时间序列的实证数据,结合动态网络分析法DANP得到变量交互关系。并利用 QSIM 算法驱动其动态演化,确定价值链均衡时的最优决策。研究发现,根据结果能够优化资源配置,明确各维度的发展优先级: 1) 初始状态较高的参与方承担更多环节对价值链最有利;2)服务商因素对总收益的影响更显著,实践中资源配置应向服务商各维度倾斜,以发展其优先级。同数理解析方法相比,实证驱动的定性模拟方法在没有精确数学模型时也可以对管理优化问题进行分析。
To reach the equilibrium in mobile value chain, the alignment between the value-added strategy and the business strategy must be realized. The qualitative simulation and empirical study are combined to study the value-added strategy alignment. The value-added strategy alignment is used as an example and questionnaire is designed to obtain data from mobile value-added industry, which is then statistically analyzed by DANP(Dynamic Analytic Network Process) to examine the interactions between drivers. Then, a qualitative simulation method (QSIM algorithm) is introduced to drive the evolution of the interactions between drivers to solve the optimization problem. Based on MALTAB 7.0, a prototype system is developed, and the simulation result can be served as the development priority in each driver, and the optimal resource allocation is achieved. It is more beneficial for mobile value chain when the participant with higher initial state take on more responsibilities. Service provider should have higher development priority and more resource allocation, due to its more significant effect on the total revenue. Furthermore, the integrated method can also deal with the optimization problem with incomplete information in other management fields, when the accurate mathematical model is unavailable.
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