软件厂商广泛采用多阶段产品发布策略应对不确定的顾客需求。为了研究需求不确定性对厂商决策的影响,构建了一个两阶段框架:垄断厂商在第一阶段向异质顾客推出质量较低的产品,通过产品的使用,将不确定的顾客需求变得更为明确,然后在第二阶段推出升级产品满足这些需求。将厂商的决策定义为受需求不确定性影响的最优化模型,将第一阶段的质量与两个阶段的定价作为决策变量,分析厂商在需求不确定条件下的最优决策。数值实验表明,需求不确定性越大,第一阶段的质量和两个阶段的定价越低。当需求不确定性非常大,且负口碑效应强度超过正口碑效应强度时,厂商在第一阶段就不应该推出软件产品。本文为信息商品领域内的厂商在不能准确把握顾客需求时的决策提供支持。
Multi-period release is a widely adopted practice followed by software providers to cope with the uncertain customers' requirements. In order to examine the impact of the requirement uncertainty on software providers' decisions, a two-period framework is considered with a monopoly software firm releasing software products to heterogeneous customers. The monopolist releases the initial product with lower quality in the first period, making the uncertain requirements more specific through the interaction between the customers and the initial product. In the second period, the monopolist releases the upgrading product to meet those requirements. The monopolist's decisions as an optimization model impacted by requirements uncertainty are formulated, taking the quality of initial product and the prices of initial and upgrading product as decision variables. The numerical results illustrate that, both the optimal quality of the initial product and the optimal prices of the initial and upgrading products decrease in the requirements uncertainty. In addition, it is optimal for the monopolist not to release the initial product in the first period when the market satisfies following conditions simultaneously: Firstly, the uncertainty of customers' requirements is sufficiently high, and secondly, the intensity of the negative word-of-mouth effect is higher than that of positive word-of-mouth effect. Some supports are offered in our work to the optimal decisions in the context when the information goods providers can not capture correct requirements of the customers.
[1] J Nielsen. Usability engineering[J].San Diego: Academic Press, 1993.
[2] H R Varian, Shapiro C. Information rules: A strategic guide to the network economy[M]. BOSTON: Harvard Business School Press,1999.
[3] Dogan K, Ji Yonghua, Mookerjee V S, et al. Managing the versions of a software product under variable and endogenous demand[J]. Information Systems Research, 2011,22(1):5-21.
[4] Jiang Zhengrui. How to give away software with successive versions[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2010, 49(4): 430-441.
[5] Padmanabhan V,Rajiv S, Srinivasan K. New products, upgrades, and new releases: A rationale for sequential product introduction[J]. Journal of Market Research, 1997, 34(4): 456-472.
[6] Sankaranarayanan R. Innovation and the durable goods monopolist: The optimality of frequent new-version releases[J]. Marketing Science, 2007, 26(6): 774-791.
[7] Ellison G, Fudenberg D. The neo-Luddite's lament: Excessive upgrades in the software industry[J]. RAND Journal of Economics, 2000, 31(2): 253-272.
[8] Kornish L J. Pricing for a durable-goods monopolist under rapid sequential innovation [J]. Management Science, 2001, 47(11):1552-1561.
[9] Zhao Hao, Jagpal S. Upgrade pricing, market growth, and social welfare[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2009, 62(7): 713-718.
[10] Mehra A, Bala R, Sankaranarayanan R. Competitive behavior-based price discrimination for software upgrades[J]. Information Systems Research, 2012, 23(1): 60-74.
[11] Bala R, Carr S. Pricing software upgrades: The role of product improvement and user costs[J]. Production Operations Management, 2009, 18(5): 560-580.
[12] Mussa M, Rosen S. Monopoly and product quality[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 1978, 18(2):301 -317.
[13] Bensaid B, Lesen J P. Dynamic monopoly pricing with network externalities[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1996, 14 (6): 837-855.
[14] 巩永华,李帮义. 非线性需求下具有网络外部性的二级歧视定价研究[J].中国管理科学,2010,18 (1):102-106.
[15] Zowghi D, Coulin C. Requirements elicitation: A survey of techniques, approaches, and tools[M]// Aurum A, Wohlin C. Engineering and managing software requirements. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2005: 19-46.
[16] 张俊光,吕廷杰. 基于规模的软件工作量估计方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(5):118-122.
[17] Fudenberg D,Tirole J, Upgrades T, Tradeins, and buybacks[J]. RAND Journal of Economics, 1998, 29(2): 235-258.
[18] Li Minqiang, Feng Haiyang, Chen Fuzan,et al. Optimal versioning strategy for information products with behavior-based utility function of heterogeneous customers[J]. Computers & Operations Research, 2013, 40 (10): 2374-2386.
[19] Cheng H K, Tang Q C. Free trial or no free trial: Optimal software product design with network effects[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2010,205(2):437-447.
[20] Cheng H K, Liu Yipeng. Optimal software free trial strategy: The impact of network externalities and consumer uncertainty[J]. Information Systems Research, 2012, 23(2): 488-504.
