针对舆情传播背景下应急资源调度问题的特殊性,首先运用多案例分析进行了具体描述。然后,考虑到公众的有限理性,运用前景理论对其风险感知行为进行了刻画,并给出了保留供应率的定义。进一步,运用模糊理论来刻画公众追溯以往的资源供应状况,在同时考虑到供应点和配送中心的能力扩充基础上,构建了多种类资源应急优化调度的0-1混合整数非线性模糊规划模型。最后,以2011年东日本大地震事件为例验证了理论研究的有效性,并考查了决策者在控制公众风险感知中的偏好行为对最优调度方案的影响。
According to the particularity of emergency resource scheduling problem under the background of possible panic buying behavior resulted from public opinion propagation, the specific characteristics of the emergency resource scheduling problem are firstly described and analyzed by applying the approach of multi-case study. The results show that this problem is an optimal scheduling problem characterized by capacity expansion, multi-supply points, multi-distribution centers, multi-demand points, and multi-resource flows. Then, through considering the public's bounded rationality, the public's risk perception behavior is described, and the reservation supply rate is defined based on prospect theory to represent the preferential behavior of decision-makers when managing the public's risk perception behavior. Next, supply condition of resources of the public recalled is denoted using fuzzy theory. In addition, taking into account the capacity expansion of supply points and distribution centers simultaneously, a 0-1 mixed integer nonlinear fuzzy programming model (0-1MINFPM) for emergency optimal scheduling of multi-resource flows is proposed. Finally, The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 is taken as an example to verify the validity of this study and test the influence of decision-makers' preferential behavior on optimal scheduling scheme. The studies find that the emergency resource scheduling system is likely to has the different minimum total costs, the different optimal capacity expansion plans and the different optimal scheduling results under the different preferential behaviors of decision-makers.
[1] Caunhye A M, Nie X F, Pokharel S. Optimization models in emergency logistics:A literature review[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2012, 46(1):4-13.
[2] Ma Ning, Liu Yijun.Superedge Rank algorithm and its application in identifying opinion leader of online public opinion supernetwork[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2014, 41(4):1357-1368.
[3] Cho Y, Hwang J, Lee D.Identification of effective opinion leaders in the diffusion of technological innovation:A social network approach[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2012, 79(1):97-106.
[4] Zhao Laijun, Xie Wanlin, Gao H O, et al.A rumor spreading model with variable forgetting rate[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013, 392(23):6146-6154.
[5] Han Shuo, Zhuang Fuzhen, He Qing, et al. Energy model for rumor propagation on social networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2014, 394(2):99-109.
[6] Rachaniotis N P, Dasaklis T K, Pappis C P. A deterministic resource scheduling model in epidemic control:A case study[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012, 216(1):225-231.
[7] Wilson D T, Hawe G I, Coates G, et al. A multi-objective combinatorial model of casualty processing in major incident response[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2013, 230(1):643-655.
[8] 詹沙磊,刘南. 基于灾情信息更新的应急物资配送多目标随机规划模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(1):159-166.
[9] Wex F, Schryen G, Feuerriegel S, et al. Emergency response in natural disaster management:Allocation and scheduling of rescue units[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, 235(1):697-708.
[10] Yan Shangyao, Lin C K, Chen Shengyu. Logistical support scheduling under stochastic travel times given an emergency repair work schedule[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2014, 67:20-35.
[11] Chang Fusheng, Wu J S, Lee C N, et al.Greedy-search-based multi-objective genetic algorithm for emergency logistics scheduling[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2014, 41(6):2947-2956.
[12] 王海军,王婧,马士华,等. 模糊供求条件下应急物资动态调度决策研究[J]. 中国管理科学,2014,22(1):55-64.
[13] 王旭坪,马超,阮俊虎. 考虑公众心理风险感知的应急物资优化调度[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(7):1735-1742.
[14] Naheed A, Singh M, Lucy D. Numerical study of SARS epidemic model with the inclusion of diffusion in the system[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2014, 229:480-498.
[15] Shimmura H, Kawaguchi H, Tokiwa M, et al. Impact of the great eastern Japan earthquake on transplant renal function in Iwaki city, Fukushima[J]. Transplantation Proceedings, 2014, 46(2):613-615.
[16] 刘智,张岩. 基于公众记忆操纵理论的应急信息发布策略[J]. 科研管理,2011,32(9):100-107.
[17] Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2):263-291.
[18] Dubey D, Mehra A. A bipolar approach in fuzzy multi-objective linear programming[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2014, 246:127-141.
[19] Zhang Weiguo, Liu Yongjun, Xu Weijun. A new fuzzy programming approach for multi-period portfolio optimization with return demand and risk control[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2014, 246:107-126.
[20] Baykasoglu A, Gocken T. A direct solution approach to fuzzy mathematical programs with fuzzy decision variables[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(2):1972-1978.
