冲突分析图模型中强度偏好的引入增加了决策者的感情色彩,进一步丰富了决策者的偏好信息。在强度偏好下运用冲突分析图模型理论对冲突进行建模时,有一个非常重要的问题——强度偏好的排序。本研究首先将简单偏好下的策略优先权排序法扩展到强度偏好;然后以"兰州水污染事件"为例,在兰州威立雅水务公司、地方政府和中石化兰州分公司存在强度偏好的情况下,运用扩展后的策略优先权排序法求取各决策者的强度偏好序列,并对此次水污染事件引发的冲突进行建模、分析,模拟了冲突事件中的谈判和协商过程,求得冲突各方的均衡解,案例分析过程也从战略层面为我国实现经济的可持续发展提供借鉴。
Strength of preference is incorporated into the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) to enhance intensity of relative preference. It is very important to obtain a ranking of strength of preference based on option prioritization for modeling module. The option prioritization approach for simple preference is extended to strength of preference in this paper. The proposed approach is employed to the "Water Pollution Conflict in Lanzhou" in which there are three decision makers with strength of preference. The conflict model is established and then the process of this conflict's negotiations and consultations is simulated. Finally, the equilibria of this model are obtained using the decision support system based on GMCR. The results from this research provide a valuable view for the sustainable development of China's economy.
[1] Von Neumann J, Morgenstern O. The theory of games and economic behavior[M].Princeton,New Jersey:Princeton University Press, 1944.
[2] Howard N. Paradoxes of rationality: Theory of metagames and political behavior[M].Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1971.
[3] Kilgour D M, Hipel K W, Fang Liping. The graph model for conflicts[J].Automatica, 1987, 23(1): 41-55.
[4] Fang Liping, Hipel K W, Kigour D M. A decision support system for interactive decision making: The graph model for conflict resolution[M].New York: Wiley, 1993.
[5] Getirana A, Malta V D. Decision process in a water use conflict in brazil[J].Water Resources Management, 2008, 22(1): 103-118.
[6] Inohara T, Hipel K W, Walker S. Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the war of 1812[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2007, 16(2): 181-201.
[7] Hipel K W, Walker S B. Conflict analysis in environmen- tal management[J].Environmetrics, 2011, 22(5): 279-293.
[8] 韩雪山, 徐海燕. 基于图模型的复杂产品过程冲突研究[J].现代管理, 2012,2(1): 39-44.
[9] 刘德海. 群体性突发事件中政府机会主义行为的演化博弈分析. [J].中国管理科学, 2010, 18(1): 175-183.
[10] 陈珍, 费军. 基于演化博弈视角下企业工资集体协商机制的研究[J].中国管理科学, 2012,20(SI): 1-7.
[11] 浦徐进, 吴亚, 路璐, 等. 企业生产行为和官员监管行为的演化博弈模型及仿真分析[J].中国管理科学, 2013,21(SI): 390-396.
[12] 赵礼强, 徐家旺. 基于电子市场的供应链双渠道冲突与协调的契约设[J].中国管理科学, 2014, 22(5):61-68.
[13] Hamouda L, Kilgour D M, Hipel K W. Strength of preference in the graph model for conflict resolution [J].Group Decision and Negotiation, 2004, 13(5): 449-462.
[14] Hamouda L, Kilgour D M, Hipel K W. Strength of preference in graph models for multiple-decision-maker conflicts [J].Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2006, 179(1): 314-327.
[15] Fang Liping, Hipel K W, Kigour D M, et al. A decision support system for interactive decision making-part 1: Model formulation[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part C-Applications and Reviews, 2003, 33(1): 42-55.
[16] Xu Haiyan, Kilgour D M, Hipel K W. An integrated algebraic approach to conflict resolution with three-level preference[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2010, 216 (3): 693-707.
[17] Xu Haiyan, Hipel K W, Kilgour D M. Multiple levels of preference in interactive strategic decisions [J].Discrete Applied Mathematics, 2009, 157(15): 3300-3313.
[18] 韩雪山. 基于冲突分析图模型的结盟稳定性研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2013.