本文在全球经济一般均衡框架下，分析了多国经济和产业结构在各国地缘政治经济相互作用下的发展情况。本文在多国多部门的一般均衡模型基础上，使用GTAP-2007的数据，将全球划分的10个国家/地区，每个国家/地区包含12个产业部门，并补充地理相互作用机制，用来分析和预测各国的经济增长和产业结构变化情况。结果发现，中国的产业投资向第三产业偏移能够促进中国经济和世界总体经济的发展；如果美国和日本再增强其第二产业的发展，结果不仅会影响自身的经济增长，同时还会影响其他制造业国家的经济发展，进而对世界经济的整体不利。
Based on a multiple-country-sector general-equilibrium model, the development and industrial structural changes of several main countries or regions are analyzed. Taking geographic interaction into account, the world in this paper is divided into 10 countries and regions, and every country or region has 12 industrial sectors. And different investment structures are also made to analyze the changes of industrial structure. The results show that if China strengthen the development of the service sector, the development of China's and global economy will be better. If the USA and Japan strengthen the development of second industry, the economy of them will get bad influence, and this will also be bad to the economy of global economy.
[1] Demko G J, Wood W B. Reordering the world:Geopolitical perspectives on the twenty-first century[M].Boulder,Colorado:Westview Press, 1994.
[2] Sparke M. From geopolitics to geoeconomics:Transnational state effects in th borderlands[J]. Geopolitics, 1998, 3(2):62-98.
[3] Schlevogt K A. Institutional and organizational factors affecting effectiveness:Geoeconomic comparison between Shanghai and Beijing[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2001, 18(4):519-551.
[4] Smith A. Imagining geographies of the ‘new Europe’:Geo-economic power and the new European architecture of integration[J]. Political Geography, 2002, 21(5):647-670.
[5] 张耀光.中国的海疆与我国海洋地缘政治战略[J]. 人文地理, 1996, (02):47-50.
[6] 毛汉英.中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014,(03):289-302.
[7] 王铮,夏海斌,吴静.普通地理学[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2010.
[8] 宋凌云, 王贤彬. 重点产业政策、资源重置与产业生产率[J]. 管理世界, 2013,(12):63-77.
[9] Li Dongmei. Financial constraints, R&D investment, and stock returns[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24(9):2974-3007.
[10] Martina B R. The evolution of science policy and innovation studies[J]. Research Policy, 2012, 41(7):1219-1239.
[11] 肖文, 林高榜. 政府支持、研发管理与技术创新效率——基于中国工业行业的实证分析[J]. 管理世界, 2014,(4):71-80.
[12] 李广瑜, 史占中, 赵子健. 中国高技术产业创新的影响因素研究[J]. 经济与管理研究, 2016, 37(2):85-90.
[13] 张华. 协同创新、知识溢出的演化博弈机制研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(2):92-99.
[14] 李苗苗, 肖洪钧, 赵爽. 金融发展、技术创新与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国的省市面板数据[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015,23(2):162-169.
[15] 陆静.金融发展与经济增长关系的理论与实证研究——基于中国省际面板数据的协整分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012,20(1):177-184.
[16] Rajan R, Zingales L.Financial dependence and growth[J]. American Economic Review, 1998, 88(3):559-586.
[17] Jin Keyu. Industrial structure and capital flows[J]. American Economic Review, 2012, 102(5):2111-2146.
[18] 顾高翔. 全球经济互动与产业进化条件下的气候变化经济学集成评估模型及减排战略——CINCIA的研发与应用[D].合肥:中国科学院大学, 2014.
[19] 胡敏. 全球创新发展下地缘政治经济进化与全球治理研究[D]. 合肥:中国科学院大学, 2015.
[20] Arrow K J. The economic implications of learning by doing[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 1962, 29(3):155-173.
[21] Romer P M. Increasing returns and long-run growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1986, 94(5):1002-1037.
[22] Lorentz A, Savona M. Evolutionary micro-dynamics and changes in the economic structure[J]. Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2008,18(34), 389-412.
[23] Lorentz A, Savona M. Structural change and business cycles:An evolutionary approach[J].Papers on Economics and Evolution, 2010, 21.
[24] Abel A B. The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of social security[J]. Econometrica, 2003, 71(2):551-578.
[25] 王铮, 葛昭攀, 廖悲雨. 知识溢出下增长收敛的复杂性[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 33(10):131-143.
[26] 简新华, 于波. 可持续发展与产业结构优化[J]. 中国人口资源与环境, 2001,(1):30-33.
