考虑分布式发电的优先自用特征与风电站的经济特性，在贡献毛益随机变动前提下，运用实物期权理论构建了分布式风电站投资机会的期权定价模型。求解出贡献毛益临界值、最优投资规模、以及延迟投资的期权价值和期望等待时间，通过算例分析验证了主要结论并给出了参数对均衡状态影响程度的变动规律。研究发现：对投资有时限的分布式风电站而言，贡献毛益临界值、最优投资规模、以及期望等待时间均与贡献毛益的期望增长率和变动率正相关，而延迟投资的期权价值与此二者相关性存在差异，且影响的显著性也不同；在一定条件和贡献毛益波动范围内，推迟投资的期权价值与相应的期望等待时间随风电自用占比或初始贡献毛益的增大而分别增大和减小，但风电自用占比对最优投资规模，以及初始贡献毛益对贡献毛益临界值与最优投资规模并无影响；决策者的最优投资决策需同时考虑贡献毛益临界值及其最优投资规模。
Under the premise of contribution margin varying randomly,distributed power generation first serves self-use as well as its economic characteristics are considered. Based on the real options theory,the option pricing model for investment opportunity in distributed wind power stations is established,and the contribution margin threshold,optimal investment scale,the option value and expected waiting time of delayed investment are solved. A case study is presented to validate the main conclusions,and give the influence variation of different parameters on the equilibrium state. It is found that for distributed wind power stations with limited investment time,contribution margin threshold,optimal investment scale,and expected waiting time are all positively related to the expected increase and variation rate of contribution margin. Meanwhile,the option value of delayed investment has different correlations with these two rates,and the significances of the influences are different. In a certain condition and range of contribution margin,the option value of delayed investment and expected waiting time increases and decreases respectively,with the increase of the proportion of generated wind power for self-use or initial contribution margin. However,the proportion of generated wind power for self-use does not influence the optimal investment scale,and the initial contribution margin does not influence the contribution margin threshold and optimal investment scale. The decision-maker's optimal decision should take both contribution margin threshold and optimal investment scale into consideration.
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