Abstract: Petroleum reserve plays an extremely important role in the national economy development and national economic security.This paper has constructed the petroleum reserve model with the impact of petroleum substitution and tariff quota policy,analyzed the impact of the two factors on the optimal strategy,and set up three different scenarios to analyze the the validity of the model.The results show that,the decreased size of the petroleum substitution will result in the increased capacity of the optimal country oil and the reduction of the relating rate of petroleum reserves;and the reduced petroleum imported quotas will cause the country to enlarge the optimal size of the petroleum reserves,the rapid decrease of the rate of the petroleum covering and oil release rate declined slightly.

Key words: petroleum substitution, tariff quota policy, size of petroleum reserves, rate of petroleum covring, rate of petroleum releasing