Abstract: Based on the data query system of accidents in work provided by the State Administration of Work Safety,not only does this paper analyzes the statistics of work safety accidents but also explores the development trend of work safety accidents from 2001 to 2008.(accidents in work safety are classified by the number of deaths).At the same time,the ARIMA-BP、ARIMA-RBF and ARIMA-GRNN nonlinear com bining forecast model are constructed.At last,this paper constructs a double nonlinear combining for ecast model by combining threesingle nonlinear combining fo recast models with RBF net work.The results indicate that the accuracy of the double nonlinear combining forecasting models are higher than the accuracy of the single ARIMA model and three single nonlinear combining forecast models.This study provides a new method for promoting the development and improvement of strategic planning of work safety.

Key words: work safety, ARIMA model, BP model, RBF model, GRNN model, nonlinear combination