Abstract: Whether the non-performing loan is zero recovery rate or not is one of the most important things for its pricing,management and disposal strategy.Macroeconomic factors and disposal effects will both affect the recovery rate.Based on LossMetrics ^TM,this paper use family of logistic models to analyze the hazard rate of zero recovery non-performing loans from 2001 to 2008.We analyze the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the zero recovery loans for the whole sample,and we divide the time of disposition into four subsamples,that is less than 12 months,12-22 months,23-60 months and more than 60 months,and contribute models for the four different subsamples.The results show that the relationship between GDP growth and zero recovery rate is negative,collateral factors are significant in most models for subsamples,but in the models the effects are different.Analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and disposal effect will help us to develop effective recovery strategy

Key words: extreme zero recovery rate, family of logistic, GDP growth, effect of disposition