Abstract: This paper simulates the optimal strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve in emergency based on a dynamic programming model.We include the GDP loss cause by oil supply shortages in the reserve cost function,and use monthly decision instead of annual basis to provide more realistic simulation of the optimal SPR strategy.Model results show that:In sudden natural disaster scenario,the optimal strategy is to rapidly draw down about 12～36 million barrels SPR to stabilize oil prices and ease supply shortages.In financial crisis scenario,the optimal strategy is to sell some SPR(about 6～18 million barrels)at high oil prices,and then quickly stockpile while the oil prices are relatively low so as to reduce the total cost of reserves.In local armed conflict scenario,the optimal strategy is to continuously and rapidly draw down about 36～77 million barrels SPR to protect the security of oil supply.

Key words: strategic petroleum reserves, dynamic programming model, oil supply emergency, optimal strategy of stockpile, optimal strategy of drawdown