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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2004, Vol. ›› Issue (3): 22-27.

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Study on the Evaluation of R&D Projects Based on the Binomial Option Tree Model

MA Meng-meng1,2, CAI Chen1, WANG Zhao-xiang1   

  1. 1. Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China;
    2. College of Commerce, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
  • Received:2003-12-20 Revised:2004-04-15 Online:2004-06-28 Published:2012-03-07

Abstract: This article introduces the Real Options Theory into the field of R&D project management.On the basis of Stagegate NPD Model,the application of binomial option tree model to evaluating the R&D is discussed.After comparison,it is concluded that the value of the R&D project will be underestimated because the NPV mistreated the risk in R&D,which would undermine the corporate investment decision.

Key words: R&D project, real options theory, NPV rule, binomial options tree model

CLC Number: