Abstract: Cramer (2004) pointed out shortcoming of plain Logistic default model and put forward bounded Logistic model.This paper does some further research about bounded Logistic default model.We first demonstrate why bounded Logistic default model is superior to plain Logistic model theoretically through Bayes analysis.Then we give empirical evidences based on China companies' data.We not only find evidences about Cramer's problem,but also find that bounded Logistic model can solve the Cramer's problem,which is not sensitive to critical value and has higher prediction efficiency.

Key words: logistic, default, bounded logistic, bayes analysis