Abstract: The enterprise group has always been seen as the key customer of the commercial bank. The research on system simulation and prediction in the credit risk contagion of the enterprise group has been a key issue of risk control concerned by commercial bank. But the traditional simulation methods either do not take into account the corporate group of its own structural characteristics or over-reliance on the specific assumptions of random process, that makes a significantl reduction of the reliability of conclusions. So in this paper the Cellular Automata model, which is widely used in the field of biological and computer science, is introduced into the research on system simulation in the credit risk contagion of the enterprise group. It is found out that the credit risk of the enterprise changes into two different modes: the diversification of risk and the expansion of risk. Parent company can choose the optimal control of each subsidiary to reach the lowest default probability.

Key words: enterprise group, cellular automata, credit risk contagion, simulation