主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2013, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 40-49.

• Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

China’s Basic Implicit Pension Debt Trends Analysis——Based on the Improved Actuarial Calculation Model Empirical Study

ZHANG Ying-bin, LIU Zhi-xin, BAI Man-ying, LUO Qi-yao   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
  • Received:2013-01-17 Revised:2013-05-28 Online:2013-10-30 Published:2013-10-15

Abstract: The implicit debt problems is the important issue of the pension system reform process. The drawbacks of previous studies, that in the data selection, parameter setting, latest institutional applications are pointed out in this paper. Then implicit debt study is extended from three aspects: improving calculation model combined with the latest regulations, modifying pension adjustment factor, considering the difference between the wage growth rate and the historical rate of wage growth. Further,considercing the transitional pension and fundamental pension differences in the calculation model, empirical analysis of the latest and the most reasonable data is carried out. The results show that keeping a reasonable level of several key factors can ensure the actual controlled the size of the hidden liabilities and the total fiscal revenue and GDP ratio within safe limits.To this end, this paper proposes to maintain moderate wage growth, control of a reasonable level of interest rates, take a variety of channels to increase the social pool fund balance. In the end,several suggestions are made in this paper:maintaining moderate wage growth meanwhile banlancing implicit debt and socia welfare;increasing rate of return on pension insurace investment meanwhile balancing advantages and disadvantages of yield rate and implicit debt.

Key words: implicit debt, actuarial calculation model, pension insurance system

CLC Number: