Abstract: BOT mode has been widely used in refuse-incineration power generation projects all over the country. Concession period as a key parameter in BOT projects has captured the attention of government, companies and publics. Under the circumstances, influencing factors of concession period in refuse-incineration power generation BOT projects is analyzed, and a concession period decision-making model is proposed in this paper. Based on Monte-Carlo simulation method, NPV of every year is calculated. By adopting cumulative probability under different levels of IRR as the objective function, the reasonable concession period is determined. In addition, to provide a reference for the government and companies, the impact of heat value and handling capacity on the concession period is also analyzed in this paper.

Key words: Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT), refuse-incineration power generation, concession period, Monte-Carlo simulation