Abstract: Heating, electricity and gas systems are representatives of urban typical lifeline with the characteristics of strong publicness, high risk and significant interdependence. Research on the problem of risk factor identification for the operation of urban typical lifeline has a very important significance for relevant departments to prevent risk. However, a complex interdependent context formed by multiple systems, multiple risk factors and several interdependences in reality increases the difficulty of solving the mentioned problem. Thus, a framework for risk factor identification with hierarchical network structure is firstly constructed in this paper. Then, a method for risk factor identification considering the complex interdependent context is proposed. In the method, linguistic assessment information on system interdependence and risk factor interdependence provided by experts are converted into two-tuple linguistics. Through extending the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and Two-Additive Choquet (TAC) integral operator to two-tuple linguistic environment, several interdependences are integrated comprehensively. Furthermore, the rank and classification of risk factors are determined to help decision makers judge risk source and distinct the essences of risk factors. Finally, an example in Beijing is used to illustrate the potential application value of the proposed method, and the targeted measures for risk prevention are given according to the identification results. This study provides a decision support for relevant departments to conduct risk prevention collaboratively.

Key words: urban typical lifeline, risk factor identification, complex interdependent context, two-tuple linguistics, Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method, Two-Additive Choquet (TAC) integral operator