Abstract: With the development of the shipping market, domestic and international shipping accidents occur frequently which make the ship navigation risk management issues become increasingly prominent. The effective evaluation and comprehensive risk identification of the ship navigation can provide the scientific basis for the dynamic management and safe dispatching for the maritime departments and ship enterprises, and guarantee the safety of people's lives and property in the process of ship navigation. Previous scholars' researches are based on the construction of single risk factor index system for risk management focusing on the impact of individual risk factors on the overall systemic risk. However, the risk of ship navigation is generated by the interaction of various risk factors, and a single risk model can't fully explain the source of the risk. In view of this background, a multidimensional risk measurement model based on the ideas and methodologies of Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) and Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management Framework (RFRM) is built. In this paper, the method of HHM-RFRM is improved from the following three aspects:First, in terms of scenario recognition, the concept of multidimensional risk factors is presented, supposing that V_n^m represents a risk scenario consisting of m risk factors and is numberedn. V_n^m is called the m-dimensional risk scenario, and N_k represents the risk factor in the risk scenario V_n^m. Second, in terms of risk qualitative assessment, the characteristics of each risk factor are qualitatively analyzed to help the decision maker to quantify the risk factors and overall risk of navigation from its ability to defeat the ship's navigational system, aiming at the complex characteristic of ship navigation risk. According to the theory of Matalas and Fiering, the characteristics of each risk factor can be further evaluated to provide the reference standard for quantitative assessment by reflecting its ability to defeat the system protection ability including three defensive features of resilience, robustness, and redundancy. Third, in terms of quantitative risk assessment, the degree of the risk scenario is quantitatively calculated from two dimensions of probability and consequence, introducing the multidimensional risk measurement model combined with Bayesian theorem. The assessment of multiple risk factors including environment, software, hardware, and management is integrated. The risk source of the interaction of the key risk factors can be reflected. In this paper, the HHM framework of ship navigation risk is constructed based on the analysis of the risk factors of ship navigation. Afterwards, the concept of multidimensional risk scenario is proposed, and each risk scenario is identified by HHM. Further, the RFRM method is combined with the Bayesian theorem to filter and grade the ship navigation risk situation qualitatively and quantitatively. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by taking the cargo ship dealing with the commercial activities in Dalian Port as an example. A new perspective for the ship navigation risk management is provided in this paper.

Key words: HHM-RFRM, ship navigation risk, Bayesian theorem, risk measure model, risk management