Abstract: There are many sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making, and their impacts on decision-making cannot be ignored. If these risks cannot be controlled effectively, they will become a new source of risk, further deteriorating the situation, and then may lead to poor rescue performance, or even rescue failure. The risks in large group emergency decision-making are systematically identified from the aspects of individual factors and group factors, and the relationship between each risk factor and two group effects is explored, namely cognitive conflict and relationship conflict, then a large group emergency decision-making risk-causing system is established. On this basis, the simulation variables consisting of individual acceptance, group structure, interaction mode, decision strategy and decision-making environment are set and the multi-agent simulation model of risk-causing for large group emergency decision-making is established based on opinion dynamics by using Netlogo tool. Finally, the general rules of the causal mechanisms of each risk factor are obtained by case simulation. The simulation results show that the fusion and integration of different information and perspectives is the key driving force of risk control for large group emergency decision-making with high complexity and uncertainty. It can effectively control the risk and ensure the efficiency of large group emergency decision-making after establishing the optimal decision-making group, increasing the participation and interaction scope of decision-makers, promoting more comprehensive information sharing, ensuring sufficient and efficient exchange of opinions, forming decision-making consensus with maximum efficiency, and maintaining a high predictability of the dynamics of external impacts in the decision-making environment. Decision conflict is taken as a representation of decision risk, and innovatively the research of large group emergency decision is intensified from the decision conflict direction to the decision risk direction, which is the expansion and integration of large group emergency decision research field, and helpful to grasp the composition of risk factors and their influencing rules in large groups emergency decision-making, and can provide reference and guidance for strategy selection in emergency decision-making.

Key words: large group, emergency decision making, risk-causing, multi-agent simulation