[1] Giglio S, Kelly B, Pruitt S. Systemic risk and the macroeconomy:An empirical evaluation[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2016, 119(3):457-471. [2] Campbell J Y, Cochrane J H. By force of habit:A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market Behavior[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1999, 107(2):205-251. [3] Reitz T A. The equity risk premium:A solution[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988,(22):117-31. [4] Barro R J.Rare disasters and asset markets in the twentieth century[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,(121):823-866. [5] Fama E F, Schwert G W. Inflation, interestand relative prices[J]. Journal of Business, 1979, 52(2):183-209. [6] Ferson W E, Harvey C R. Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns:A perspective on conditional asset pricing[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 1997, 21(11-12):1625-1665. [7] Levine R, Zervos S. Stock markets, banksand growth[J]. American Economic Review,1998, 88(3):537-558. [8] 赵振全, 张宇. 中国股票市场波动和宏观经济波动关系的实证分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2003,(6):143-146. [9] Chow G C, Lin A L. Best linear unbiased estimation of missing observations in an economic time series[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1976, 71(355):719-721. [10] 赵进文, 薛艳. 我国分季度GDP估算方法的研究[J]. 统计研究, 2009, 26(10):25-32. [11] Silvestrini A, Veredas D. Temporal aggregation of univariate and multivariate time series models:a survey[J]. Journal of Economic Surveys, 2008, 22(3):458-497. [12] Ghysels E, Sinko A, Valkanov R. MIDAS regressions:Further results and new directions[J]. Econometric Reviews, 2007,(26):53-90. [13] Engle R F, Lee G G J. A permanent and transitory component model of stock return volatility[M]//Engle R F, White H (Eds.). Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting. A Festschrift in Honour of Clive W.J. Granger. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1999. [14] 刘汉, 刘金全. 中国宏观经济总量的实时预报与短期预测——基于混频数据预测模型的实证研究[J]. 经济研究, 2011,(3):4-17. [15] 李正辉, 郑玉航. 基于混频数据模型的中国经济周期区制监测研究[J]. 统计研究, 2015, 32(1):33-40. [16] 鲁万波,杨冬.基于半参数混频误差修正模型的中国CPI预测研究[J]. 统计研究, 2018, 35(10):30-45. [17] Engle R F, Ghysels E, Sohn B. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic fundamentals[J]. Review of Economics & Statistics, 2013, 95(3):776-797. [18] 郑挺国, 尚玉皇. 基于宏观基本面的股票市场波动度量与预测[J]. 世界经济, 2014,(12):118-139. [19] Asgharian H, Christiansen C, Ai J H. Effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the stock and bond markets[J]. Finance Research Letters, 2015, 13(7):10-16. [20] 夏婷,闻岳春. 经济不确定性是股票市场波动的因子吗?——基于GARCH-MIDAS模型的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(12):4-14. [21] Campbell J Y, Shiller R J. The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 1988, 1(3):195-228. [22] Campbell J Y. A variance decomposition for stock returns[J].Economic Journal, 1991, 101(405):157-179. [23] Engle R F, Gonzalo R J. The spline-GARCH model for low-frequency volatility and its global macroeconomic causes[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2008, 21(3):1187-1222. [24] Schwert G W. Why does stock market volatility change over time?[J]. The Journal of Finance, 1989, 44(5):1115-1153. [25] Kim Y, Nelson C R. Pricing stock market volatility:does it matter whether the volatility is related to the business cycle?[J]. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2014, 12(2):307-328. [26] Asgharian H, Ai J H, Javed F. The importance of the macroeconomic variables in forecasting stock return variance:A GARCH-MIDAS Approach[J]. Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 32(7):600-612. [27] 林海明, 杜子芳. 主成分分析综合评价应该注意的问题[J]. 统计研究, 2013, 30(8):25-31. [28] 刘凤根, 周驭舰. 股票市场波动性特征及溢出效应经验研究[J]. 云南财经大学学报, 2018,34(11):49-60. [29] 孟庆斌, 张永冀, 汪昌云. 中国股市是宏观经济的晴雨表吗?[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(2):13-24. |