Abstract: Causal correlation analysis between geological factors, technical factors and capacity of oil and gas is of great significance for scientific decision-making in unconventional oil and gas production. However, the quantitative relationship between single factor and the capacity is mainly discussed, and the combined scenario effect of similar influencing factors is not deeply studied. Tight gas production is taken as an example. From the perspective of the causal relationship chain between production factors and production capacity, a quantitative relationship between the combination scenario of multiple factors of controllable technical factors and capacity is analyzed to achieve optimizing production technical conditions. GMDH-RSM Combined method is constructed. Firstly, under the method of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), the selection method of key factors affecting capacity is given in this paper. Secondly, the controllable factors in actual production decisions are found by classification of key indicators. Finally, empirical analysis is made by Response Surface Methodology (RSM) on the quantitative relationship between the combination of multiple technical factors and the production capacity. The results show that: (1) different values of combinations of technical factors affect production capacity significantly through second-order equations; (2) selecting scenarios with different values of technical factors, the corresponding level of technical output, i.e. production, can be obtained, so as to achieve capacity control.The conclusion of this paper clarifies the quantitative relationship form of the impact of technical factors accompanying tight gas development on production capacity and provides an empirical reference for the decision-making of production capacity management.

Key words: unconventional oil and gas; capacity management; multi-factor combination; response surface analysis