城市资源配置、人口集聚与房地产价格上涨——来自全国95个城市的经验证据

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2253

Abstract

Abstract: Differences in the level of urban resource allocation lead to population mobility and population agglomeration, which is a main factor for the rise of China’s real estate prices. From the perspective of the natural attributes and basic functions of commercial housing, the growth of urban population also plays a role in promoting the rise of real estate prices.Higher levels of public resources motivate the population to move from low resource allocation areas to the high allocation area. The resulting resource competition generated in the process of population agglomeration will inevitably lead to increasing real estate prices in the area.Under the background of increasing domestic and international uncertainties and the downward pressure on the macro economy, this paper reveals the formation mechanism of real estate price changes and the underlying driving factors which play an important role in the implementation of China’s current real estate market policies aimed at stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations and effective regulation of real estate prices.

Key words: urban resource allocation, population agglomeration, real estate price

CLC Number:

LIU Feng-gen, WANG Yi-ding, YAN Jian-jun, ZHANG Min. Urban Resource Allocation, Population Agglomeration and Rising Real Estate Prices——An Empirical Evidence from 95 Cities in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(7): 31-46.

References

［1］孟庆斌, 黄清华, 张能鲲, 等. 城镇化、区域发展不均衡与房地产价格［J］. 经济理论与经济管理, 2017(9):5-18.Meng Qingbin,Huang Qinghua,Zhang Nengkun,et al. Urbanization,uneven development and real estate price［J］. Economic Theory and Business Management,2017(9):5-18.
［2］ Lin Xiaoyan, Wang Peng. Relationship between rising housing prices and reduction in urban agglomeration［J］. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 2020, 146(3): 04020031.
［3］李英利. 财政压力,土地财政与区域房价的时空演化——基于GTWR模型的实证研究［J］. 财政研究, 2020(5):78-89.Li Yingli. Fiscal pressure, land finance and the spatio-temporal evolution of regional house price—Empirical research based on GTWR model［J］. Public Finance Research, 2020(5):78-89.
［4］刘莉亚. 境外“热钱”是否推动了股市, 房市的上涨？——来自中国市场的证据［J］. 金融研究, 2008(10): 48-70.Liu Liya. Do overseas “hot-money” push sharp rise of the Chinese stock market and real estate market?［J］. Journal of Financial Research, 2008(10): 48-70.
［5］李成, 李一帆, 于海东, 等. 城市人口、货币政策与房地产价格: 内在机理与实证检验［J］. 当代经济科学, 2020, 42(1):108-119.Li Cheng, Li Yifan, Yu Haidong, et al. The impact of urban population and monetary policy on real estate Price: internal mechanism and empirical test［J］.Modern Economic Science, 2020,42(1):108-119.
［6］郭文伟. 中国多层次房价泡沫测度及其驱动因素研究——兼论我国房地产调控政策的实施效果［J］. 经济学家, 2016(10):30-37.Guo Wenwei. Analysis on multi-level bubble estimation of housing price and its driving factors in China—Also study onthe actual results of real estate regulations and control policies in China［J］. Economist, 2016(10):30-37.
［7］李伦一, 张翔.中国房地产市场价格泡沫与空间传染效应［J］. 金融研究, 2019(12):169-186.Li Lunyi, Zhang Xiang.Real estate price bubbles and the spatial contagion effect: Evidence from 100 cities in China［J］.Journal of Financial Research, 2019(12):169-186.
［8］程方楠,孟卫东.宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调搭配——基于贝叶斯估计的DSGE模型［J］.中国管理科学,2017,25(1):11-20.Cheng Fangnan, Meng Weidong.Coordination between macro-prudential policy and monetary policy:Based on a DSGE model by Bayesianestimation［J］.Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017,25(1):11-20.
［9］韩鑫韬,刘星.汇率变化对房价波动存在溢出效应吗?——来自1997-2015年中国房地产市场的证据［J］.中国管理科学,2017,25(4):7-17.Han Xintao, Liu Xing. Can the changes in exchange rates have spillover effects on the real estate price’s fluctuations?: Evidence from China’s real estate market 1997-2015［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017,25(4):7-17.
［10］ Brown S J, Liu C H. A global perspective on real estate cycles［M］. Amsterdam: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.
［11］ Howard G. The migration accelerator: labor mobility,housingand demand［J］. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2020, 12(4): 147-179.
［12］骆永民. 城市化对房价的影响: 线性还是非线性？——基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析［J］.财经研究, 2011,37(4):135-144.Luo Yongmin.The effect of urbanization on house prices: linear or nonlinear? —Empirical study based on four panel data regression models［J］. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2011, 37(4):135-144.
［13］李仲飞,张浩.成本推动、需求拉动——什么推动了中国房价上涨?［J］.中国管理科学,2015, 23(5): 143-150.Li Zhongfei, Zhang Hao. Cost-push or demand-pull: What is driving the housing prices in China? ［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(5): 143-150.
［14］ Hu Meiting, Dong Jichang, Yin Lijun, et al. A study on the relationship between land finance and housing price in urbanization process: an empirical analysis of 182 cities in China based on threshold panel models［J］. Journal of Systems Science and Information, 2021, 9(1): 74-94.
［15］徐腾, 姚洋. 城际人口迁移与房价变动——基于人口普查与百度迁徙数据的实证研究［J］. 江西财经大学学报, 2018(1):11-19.Xu Teng, Yao Yang. Urban population migration and housing price fluctuation:An empirical research based on the census data and Baidu migration data［J］.Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,2018(1):11-19.
［16］丁洋, 郑江淮. 中国人口老龄化会减少住房需求吗?［J］. 中国软科学, 2018(2):68-77.Ding Yang, Zheng Jianghuai. Will aging of population reduce housing demand?［J］. China Soft Science, 2018(2):68-77.
［17］陈国进, 李威, 周洁. 人口结构与房价关系研究——基于代际交叠模型和我国省际面板的分析［J］. 经济学家, 2013(10):42-49.Chen Guojin, Li Wei, Zhou Jie. A study on the relationship between population structure and housing prices—An analysis based on Overlapping Generations Model and inter-provincial panel date in China［J］. Economist, 2013(10):42-49.
［18］刘修岩, 李松林. 房价、迁移摩擦与中国城市的规模分布——理论模型与结构式估计［J］. 经济研究, 2017, 52(7) :65-78.Liu Xiuyan, Li Songlin. Housing price, migration friction, and city-size distribution in China: Theory model and structural estimation［J］.Economic Research Journal, 2017, 52(7) :65-78.
［19］ Wang Xinrui, Hui E C M, Sun Jiuxia. Population aging, mobility, and real estate price: Evidence from cities in China［J］. Sustainability, 2018, 10(9): 1-13.
［20］陈斌开, 张川川. 人力资本和中国城市住房价格［J］. 中国社会科学, 2016(5):43-64.Chen Binkai, Zhang Chuanchuan.Human capital and housing prices in Chinese cities［J］.Social Sciences in China, 2016(5):43-64.
［21］代佳欣. 城市公共资源配置失衡的三重归因：制度壁垒,发展主义与自我建构［J］. 现代经济探讨, 2016(8) :19-23.Dai Jiaxin. The reason of the imbalance of urban public resources allocation［J］.Modern Economic Research, 2016(8):19-23.
［22］ Tiebout C M. A pure theory of local expenditures［J］. Journal of Political Economy, 1956, 64(5):416-424.
［23］ Zhang Linlin, Zhou Tao, Mao Chao.Does the difference in urban public facility allocation cause spatial inequality in housing prices? evidence from Chongqing, China［J］. Sustainability, 2019, 11(21): 1-20.
［24］许恒周, 赵一航, 田浩辰. 京津冀城市圈公共服务资源配置与人口城镇化协调效率研究［J］.中国人口·资源与环境, 2018, 28(3): 22-30.Xu Hengzhou, Zhao Yihang, Tian Haochen. Research of coordination efficiency between basic public service and population urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration［J］. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2018, 28(3): 22-30.
［25］ Yuan Feng, Wei Y D, Wu Jiawei. Amenity effects of urban facilities on housing prices in China: Accessibility, scarcity, and urban spaces［J］. Cities, 2020, 96: 102433.
［26］韩峰, 李玉双.产业集聚、公共服务供给与城市规模扩张［J］.经济研究, 2019, 54(11): 149-164.Han Feng, Li Yushuang. Industrial agglomeration, public service supply and urban expansion［J］.Economic Research Journal, 2019, 54(11): 149-164.
［27］梁若冰, 汤韵. 地方公共品供给中的Tiebout模型：基于中国城市房价的经验研究［J］.世界经济, 2008(10):71-83.Liang Ruobing, Tang Yun. Tiebout model and the provision of local public goods: An empirical study on Chinese housing price［J］. The Journal of World Economy, 2008(10):71-83.
［28］高雅, 李秀婷, 董纪昌. 城市房价为何不同：公共服务对房价的影响［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2019, 39(9):2255-2262.Gao Ya, Li Xiuting, Dong Jichang.Why do housing prices differ? The role of public service in housing market［J］.Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2019,39(9):2255-2262.
［29］ Li Huiping, Wang Qingfang, Deng Zhongwei, et al. Local public expenditure, public service accessibility, and housing price in Shanghai, China［J］. Urban Affairs Review, 2019, 55(1): 148-184.
［30］ Stadelmann D, Billon S. Capitalisation of fiscal variables and land scarcity［J］. Urban Studies, 2012, 49(7): 1571-1594.
［31］ Bhattacharya T R, Bhattacharya A, Mclellan B, et al. Sustainable smart city development framework for developing countries［J］. Urban Research & Practice, 2020, 13(2): 180-212.
［32］肖祎平, 杨艳琳,宋彦.中国城市化质量综合评价及其时空特征［J］.中国人口·资源与环境, 2018, 28(9): 112-122.Xiao Yiping, Yang Yanlin, Song Yan.Comprehensive evaluation on urbanization quality and its spatial and temporal characteristics in China［J］. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2018, 28(9): 112-122.
［33］徐建炜,徐奇渊,何帆.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据［J］.世界经济, 2012, 35(1):24-42.Xu Jianwei, Xu Qiyuan, He Fan. Demographic change and real estate price: International evidence and China’s experience［J］. The Journal of World Economy, 2012, 35(1):24-42.
［34］李超,倪鹏飞,万海远.中国住房需求持续高涨之谜:基于人口结构视角［J］.经济研究, 2015, 50(5):118-133.Li Chao, Ni Pengfei, Wan Haiyuan.The mystery of China’s high demand for housing: Based on the demographic characteristics［J］.Economic Research Journal, 2015, 50(5):118-133.
［35］郭政, 姚士谋, 陈爽,等. 长三角城市群城市宜居水平时空演化及影响因素［J］. 经济地理, 2020,40(2):79-88.Guo Zheng, Yao Shimou, Chen Shuang, et al.Spatial-temporal evolution of the livability levels in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations and its influencing factors［J］. Economic Geography,2020,40(2):79-88.
［36］夏怡然, 陆铭. 城市间的“孟母三迁”——公共服务影响劳动力流向的经验研究［J］. 管理世界, 2015(10):78-90.Xia Yiran, Lu Ming. City choices: An empirical study on how public services affect labor flow［J］.Management World, 2015(10): 78-90.
［37］陈金至，温兴春，宋鹭. 收入差距、信贷约束与房价变动［J］.金融研究，2021(11):79-96.Chen Jinzhi, Wen Xingchun, Song Lu. Income gaps, credit constraints, and house price fluctuations［J］.Journal of Financial Research,2021(11):79-96.
［38］ Sá F. Immigration and house prices in the UK［J］. The Economic Journal, 2015, 125(587): 1393- 1424.
［39］何鑫,田丽慧,楚尔鸣. 人口流动视角下中国房价波动的空间异质性［J］.人口与经济, 2017(6):43-57.He Xin, Tian Lihui, Chu Erming. The spatial heterogeneity of house price volatility in China from the perspective of migration［J］.Population & Economics, 2017(6):43-57.
［40］ Glaeser E L, Gottlieb J D, Tobio K. Housing booms and city centers［J］. American Economic Review, 2012, 102(3): 127-133.
［41］ Baron R M, Kenny D A. The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations［J］. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1986, 51(6): 1173-1182.
［42］钱雪松, 杜立, 马文涛. 中国货币政策利率传导有效性研究：中介效应和体制内外差异［J］. 管理世界, 2015(11):11-28.Qian Xuesong, Du Li, Ma Wentao.A study on interest rate channel of monetary policy in China: Mediation effect and the difference between inside and outside of the institutional system［J］.Management World,2015(11):11-28.
［43］ Sobel M E.Direct and indirect effects in linear structural equation models［J］. Sociological Methods & Research, 1987,16(1) :155-176.

Urban Resource Allocation, Population Agglomeration and Rising Real Estate Prices——An Empirical Evidence from 95 Cities in China

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 1

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0