Abstract: Road capacity plays a key role in emergency evacuation planning, and it is difficult to accurately predict the road capacity when we want to formulate an evacuation plan before a disaster occurs. Based on the different degrees of impact of disasters on road capacity in reality, the emergency evacuation planning model under the condition of capacity uncertainty caused by the road stability coefficient is considered to obtain the choice of evacuation route and the corresponding flow arrangement over time. In order to avoid the disadvantages of overly strong assumptions about the exact value of road capacity or accurate probability distribution, assuming that only the mean of the road stability coefficient and the partial distribution information of the upper and lower bounds of the support set are known, the distributionally robust optimization method is used to construct a reliable evacuation path plan under the worst-case scenario of the uncertain set characterized by known information; based on the network breakdown minimization principle, an opportunity constraint model with the minimum congestion probability as the goal is established to further ensure the reliability of the route planning scheme. The solution method is given, and the simulation analysis is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the method and the reliability of the evacuation path scheme.

Key words: Emergency evacuation, route planning, stability coefficient, distributionally robust optimization