需求不确定下的航运企业区块链投资时机决策研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2770

Abstract

Abstract:

Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology， its decentralized， paperless， open， and transparent features can increase the trust among shipping companies and improve the efficiency of shipping business clearance， which is popular among modern shipping companies. At present， some shipping companies have already carried out the practice of blockchain， a typical example is the cooperation between shipping giant Maersk and IBM to improve the service level of the shipping business through blockchain. However， in the actual operation of shipping enterprises， due to the impact of geopolitics， COVID-19， technological change， climate change and other factors， there are many uncertainties in the global freight demand and the application of blockchain technology， especially in the face of fierce competition in the market， when to adopt blockchain has become a big problem troubling the operation of shipping companies. In this background， aiming at the application problem of blockchain in shipping companies， the change of competition form among shipping companies before and after the adoption of blockchain is taken as the entry point， the timing decision model is constructed under different competition scenarios， and uses real options theory to explore the investment timing strategy of blockchain for shipping companies under freightdemand uncertainty. In addition， we use numerical analysis to further explore the impact of different market and technological environments on the investment timing strategy of blockchain for shipping companies， and verify the robustness of the model through extended analysis. It shows that the stronger the incentive for shipping companies to invest blockchain early in a competitive price environment， and conversely， the weaker the incentive for shipping companies to invest blockchain early in a competitive service environment. Further discussion reveals that shipping companies can adopt differentiated blockchain investment timing strategies in the face of different demands， technologies as well as competitive environments. Then， the extended analysis reveals that government subsidies can provide incentives for shipping companies to invest blockchain in advance， while high operating costs can hinderthe blockchain promotion process. Finally， this paper provides forward policies and suggestions for governments and shipping companies to accelerate the application of blockchain technology from the perspectives of market competition， market demand， and technical environment.

Key words: blockchain, shipping companies, uncertain demand, investment timing, real option theory

CLC Number:

F272

Jie WU,Jia-guo LIU. Research on Investment Timing Decision of Blockchain for Shipping Companies under Demand Uncertainty[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(12): 163-174.

Figures/Tables 10

参数	含义	参数	含义
$a$	货运潜在需求	$r$	无风险利率
$p i$	货运单价	$α$	区块链投资成本变化率
$s i$	货运服务水平	$I$	区块链投资成本
$b$	货运价格竞争系数	$μ$	货运潜在需求漂移率
$β$	货运服务水平竞争系数	$σ$	货运潜在需求波动率
$θ$	区块链带来的额外服务水平	$E (a)$	货运潜在需求期望值
$T$	区块链采纳时机	$π i j z$	收益函数

参数名称	参数符号	参数值	单位
货运潜在需求漂移率	$μ$	0.05	无
货运潜在需求波动率	$σ$	0.4	无
无风险利率	$r$	0.09	无
C₁的货运服务水平	$s 1$	1000	万TEU
C₂的货运服务水平	$s 2$	800	万TEU
区块链带来的额外服务水平	$θ$	400	万TEU
货运价格竞争系数	$b$	0.1	无
货运服务竞争系数	$β$	0.4	无
区块链投资成本变化率	$α$	-0.04	无
区块链投资成本	$I$	4×10⁶exp( $- 0.04 t$ )	万元
货运潜在需求的期望	$E (a)$	2350 $e x p (0.05 t)$	万TEU

References 36

1	Wang Junjin， Liu Jiaguo， Wang Fan， et al. Blockchain technology for port logistics capability： exclusive or sharing［J］. Transportation Research Part B： Methodological， 2021， 149： 347-392.
2	李登峰，杜晓丽.监管参与业务审核流程的国际贸易物流区块链共识算法研究［J/OL］.中国管理科学：1-12［2023-03-28］.
	Li Dengfeng， Du Xiaoli.Study on blockchain consensus algorithm of international trade logistics under business audit process with the participation of regulators［J/OL］.Chinese Journal of Management Science：1-12［2023-03-28］.
3	Liu Jiaguo， Zhang Huimin， Zhen Lu. Blockchain technology in maritime supply chains： applications， architecture and challenges［J］. International Journal of Production Research， 2023，61（11）： 3547-3563.
4	Liu Jiaguo， Wang Junjin. Carrier alliance incentive analysis and coordination in a maritime transport chain based on service competition［J］. Transportation Research Part E： Logistics and Transportation Review， 2019， 128： 333-355.
5	赵慧达，刘家国，王军进，等.考虑区块链技术投资的港航供应链决策研究［J］.管理工程学报，2022，36（6）：117-128.
	Zhao Huida， Liu Jiaguo， Wang Junjing， et al. Research on investment strategy of shipping supply chain based on blockchain technology［J］. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management，2022，36（6）：117-128.
6	Xin Xu， Liu Miaohui， Wang Xiaoli， et al. Investment strategy for blockchain technology in a shipping supply chain［J］. Ocean & Coastal Management， 2022， 226： 106263.
7	Zhong Huiling， Zhang Fa， Gu Yimiao. A Stackelberg game based two-stage framework to make decisions of freight rate for container shipping lines in the emerging blockchain-based market［J］. Transportation Research Part E： Logistics and Transportation Review， 2021， 149： 102303.
8	Czachorowski K， Solesvik M， Kondratenko Y. The application of blockchain technology in the maritime industry［C］//Green IT Engineering： Social，Business and Industrial Applications， Switzerland， Springer， 2019： 561-577.
9	Sarker S， Henningsson S， Jensen T， et al. The use of blockchain as a resource for combating corruption in global shipping： an interpretive case study［J］. Journal of Management Information Systems， 2021， 38（2）： 338-373.
10	Wang Shuqian， Zhen Lu， Xiao Liyang， et al. Data-driven intelligent port management based on blockchain ［J］. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research， 2021， 38（3）： 2040017.
11	Tan A W K， Zhao Yifei， Halliday T. A blockchain model for less container load operations in China［J］. International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain Management， 2018， 11（2）： 39-53.
12	Howson P. Building trust and equity in marine conservation and fisheries supply chain management with blockchain［J］. Marine Policy， 2020， 115： 103873.
13	Yoon J， Talluri S， Yildiz H， et al. The value of Blockchain technology implementation in international trades under demand volatility risk［J］. International Journal of Production Research， 2020， 58（7）： 2163-2183.
14	Kumar A， Liu R， Shan Z. Is blockchain a silver bullet for supply chain management？ Technical challenges and research opportunities［J］. Decision Sciences， 2020， 51（1）： 8-37.
15	Boomsma T K， Meade N， Fleten S E. Renewable energy investments under different support schemes：a real options approach［J］. European Journal of Operational Research，2012， 220（1）：225-237.
16	Abadie L M， Chamorro J M. European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments［J］. Energy Economics， 2008， 30（6）： 2992-3015.
17	王喜平，郄少媛.碳交易机制下供应链CCS投资时机研究［J］.管理工程学报，2020，34（2）： 124-130.
	Wang Xiping， Shaoyuan Qie. Research on the timing of CCS investment in supply chain under carbon emission trading［J］.Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management，2020， 34（2）：124-130.
18	Barbosa L， Rodrigues A， Sardinha A. Optimal price subsidies under uncertainty［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2022， 303（1）： 471-479.
19	曹先磊.碳交易机制下造林碳汇项目投资时机与投资期权价值分析［J］.资源科学，2020，42（5）：825-839.
	Cao Xianlei. Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism［J］. Resources Science， 2020， 42（5）： 825-839.
20	Ma Yiju， Swandi K， Chapman A C， et al. Multi-stage compound real options valuation in residential PV-Battery investment［J］. Energy， 2020， 191： 116537.
21	王玲，张金锁，邹绍辉.序列投资下的石油勘探投资最优时机选择［J］.中国管理科学，2020， 28（10）：54-64.
	Wang Ling， Zhang Jinsuo， Zou Shaohui. The optimal investment timing of petroleum resources exploration based on sequential investment theory［J］.Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2020，28（10）：54-64.
22	Lu J C， Tsao Y C， Charoensiriwath C. Competition under manufacturer service and retail price［J］. Economic modeling， 2011， 28（3）： 1256 -1264.
23	Huang Song， Yang Chao， Zhang Xi. Pricing and production decisions in dual-channel supply chains with demand disruptions［J］. Computers & Industrial Engineering， 2012， 62（1）： 70-83.
24	Zheng Shiyuan， Jiang Changmin， Fu Xiaowen， et al. Subsidies for green technology adoption under uncertain demand and incomplete information［J］. Omega， 2022： 102675.
25	Zheng Shiyuan， Chen Shun. Fleet replacement decisions under demand and fuel price uncertainties［J］. Transportation Research Part D： Transport and Environment， 2018， 60： 153-173.
26	Harrison G P， Piccolo A， Siano P， et al. Hybrid GA and OPF evaluation of network capacity for distributed generation connections［J］. Electric Power Systems Research， 2008， 78（3）： 392-398.
27	Walsh D M， O'Sullivan K， Lee W T， et al. When to invest in carbon capture and storage technology： a mathematical model［J］. Energy Economics， 2014， 42： 219-225.
28	Dixit A. Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty［J］. Journal of Political Economy， 1989， 97（3）： 620-638.
29	吴明华.区块链正向航运业大步走来［J］.航海，2018（2）：3-5.
	Wu Minghua. Blockchain is coming to the shipping industry［J］. Navigation，2018（2）：3-5.
30	徐亦宁.从“区块链香蕉”看智慧物流［J］.中国远洋海运，2018（6）：30-31.
	Xu Yining. Smart logistics from the perspective of “blockchain banana”［J］.Maritime China，2018（6）： 30-31.
31	Zheng Wei， Li Bo， Song Dongping. The optimal green strategies for competitive ocean carriers under potential regulation［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2022， 303（2）： 840-856.
32	张来武.科技创新驱动经济发展方式转变［J］.中国软科学，2011（12）：1-5.
	Zhang Laiwu. Scientific and technical innovation drives the transition of economic development mode［J］. China Soft Science，2011（12）：1-5.
33	Rau P， Spinler S. Investment into container shipping capacity： a real options approach in oligopolistic competition［J］. Transportation Research Part E： Logistics and Transportation Review， 2016， 93： 130-147.
34	刘家国，徐文力，孙瑞.基于服务竞争的航运供应链的纵向整合决策［J］.运筹与管理，2021， 30（6）：55-62.
	Liu Jiaguo， Xu Wenli， Sun Rui. Vertical integration of shipping supply chain under service competition［J］. Operations Research and Management Science，2021，30（6）：55-62.
35	《中国经济信息》综合.部分城市区块链政策汇总［J］.中国经济信息，2018（10）：60-61.
	《China Economic Information》Comprehensive. Summary of some cities' blockchain policies［J］. China Economic Information，2018（10）： 60-61.
36	搜狐网.区块链成本有多高？一个直观的计算［EB/OL］.［2019-07-12］..
	Sohu. How expensive is blockchain？ An intuitive calculation［EB/OL］.［2019-07-12］..

[1]	Yao Zhang,Yuwei Zhang,Zhenping Li,Yuwen Wu. Research on Joint Reserve and Allocation of Multiple Emergency Medical Materials under Uncertain Demands [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(7): 129-137.
[2]	Yin Xiang. Dynamic Emergency Medical Facilities Location for Epidemics under Uncertain Demand [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(6): 129-139.
[3]	Xiaoli Du,Dengfeng Li. Research on Blockchain Network Consensus of International Trade Logistics Based on Big Boss Game [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(4): 120-129.
[4]	Rui Sun,Dayi He,Huilin Su. Application of Blockchain Technology to Preventing Supply Chain Finance Based on Evolutionary Game [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(3): 125-134.
[5]	Qin Su,Wenbo Zhang. Supply Chain Quality Information Sharing and Block Chain-enabled Authorization Strategies [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(3): 324-334.
[6]	Xuesong Xu,Yue Yan,Jiale Tang,Zongrun Wang,Kai Xu,Ming Wen. Research on Bidding Strategy of Distributed Energy Based on Heterogeneous Blockchain [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(3): 60-69.
[7]	Hanli Hu,Yu Cao,Qingsong Li. Blockchain Technology Adoption Strategy of Companies Under Strong and Weak Brand Competition [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(10): 97-108.
[8]	Jiaguo Liu,Huimin Zhang,Mingming Yang. Supply Chain Information Disclosure Strategy Considering Uncertain Demands Under the Development Pattern of Dual Circulation [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(1): 220-230.
[9]	LIANG Xi, XIAO Jin-feng. Blockchain-Based Dual-Channel Supply Chain Pricing Decision and Online Channel Selection Strategy [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(5): 29-38.
[10]	JI Qing-kai, ZHANG Feng-lin, FANG Gang, HU Xiang-pei. Game Model of Blockchain Adoption and Product Pricing in Retail Supply Chain [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(3): 102-112.
[11]	Guo-qiang SUN,Yu-fei XIE. Blockchain Technology, Supply Chain Networks and Data Sharing: Based on the Perspective of Evolutionary Game [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(12): 149-162.
[12]	QIU Ruo-zhen, WU Xu, SUN Yue, ZHU Zhu. Robust Optimization and Coordination Model for Supply Chain with Big Data Investment under Uncertain Demand [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(1): 128-141.
[13]	ZHU Jiang-hua, ZHANG Xu-mei, DAN Bin, LIU Mo-lin, MA Song-xuan. Government Subsidy Strategies of Fresh Products Considering Capital Constraints under Uncertain Demand [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(8): 231-242.
[14]	LI Zhen-ping, YI Ming-chao. Research on the Location-Distribution Problem of Distribution Centers Based on “Self-operating + Outsourcing” Mode Under Uncertain Demands [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(8): 143-154.
[15]	WANG Li-zhen, ZHANG Jian-di, WANG Wei. Research on Static Optimal Blockchain Model Based on Insurance Transactions [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(8): 44-56.

Research on Investment Timing Decision of Blockchain for Shipping Companies under Demand Uncertainty

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 36

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0