需求不确定下的航运企业区块链投资时机决策研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2770

Abstract

Abstract:

Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology， its decentralized， paperless， open， and transparent features can increase the trust among shipping companies and improve the efficiency of shipping business clearance， which is popular among modern shipping companies. At present， some shipping companies have already carried out the practice of blockchain， a typical example is the cooperation between shipping giant Maersk and IBM to improve the service level of the shipping business through blockchain. However， in the actual operation of shipping enterprises， due to the impact of geopolitics， COVID-19， technological change， climate change and other factors， there are many uncertainties in the global freight demand and the application of blockchain technology， especially in the face of fierce competition in the market， when to adopt blockchain has become a big problem troubling the operation of shipping companies. In this background， aiming at the application problem of blockchain in shipping companies， the change of competition form among shipping companies before and after the adoption of blockchain is taken as the entry point， the timing decision model is constructed under different competition scenarios， and uses real options theory to explore the investment timing strategy of blockchain for shipping companies under freightdemand uncertainty. In addition， we use numerical analysis to further explore the impact of different market and technological environments on the investment timing strategy of blockchain for shipping companies， and verify the robustness of the model through extended analysis. It shows that the stronger the incentive for shipping companies to invest blockchain early in a competitive price environment， and conversely， the weaker the incentive for shipping companies to invest blockchain early in a competitive service environment. Further discussion reveals that shipping companies can adopt differentiated blockchain investment timing strategies in the face of different demands， technologies as well as competitive environments. Then， the extended analysis reveals that government subsidies can provide incentives for shipping companies to invest blockchain in advance， while high operating costs can hinderthe blockchain promotion process. Finally， this paper provides forward policies and suggestions for governments and shipping companies to accelerate the application of blockchain technology from the perspectives of market competition， market demand， and technical environment.

Key words: blockchain, shipping companies, uncertain demand, investment timing, real option theory

CLC Number:

F272

Jie WU,Jia-guo LIU. Research on Investment Timing Decision of Blockchain for Shipping Companies under Demand Uncertainty[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(12): 163-174.

Figures/Tables 10

参数	含义	参数	含义
$a$	货运潜在需求	$r$	无风险利率
$p i$	货运单价	$α$	区块链投资成本变化率
$s i$	货运服务水平	$I$	区块链投资成本
$b$	货运价格竞争系数	$μ$	货运潜在需求漂移率
$β$	货运服务水平竞争系数	$σ$	货运潜在需求波动率
$θ$	区块链带来的额外服务水平	$E (a)$	货运潜在需求期望值
$T$	区块链采纳时机	$π i j z$	收益函数

参数名称	参数符号	参数值	单位
货运潜在需求漂移率	$μ$	0.05	无
货运潜在需求波动率	$σ$	0.4	无
无风险利率	$r$	0.09	无
C₁的货运服务水平	$s 1$	1000	万TEU
C₂的货运服务水平	$s 2$	800	万TEU
区块链带来的额外服务水平	$θ$	400	万TEU
货运价格竞争系数	$b$	0.1	无
货运服务竞争系数	$β$	0.4	无
区块链投资成本变化率	$α$	-0.04	无
区块链投资成本	$I$	4×10⁶exp( $- 0.04 t$ )	万元
货运潜在需求的期望	$E (a)$	2350 $e x p (0.05 t)$	万TEU

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Research on Investment Timing Decision of Blockchain for Shipping Companies under Demand Uncertainty

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