社会网络环境下基于群智知识融合的大群体应急决策共识模型

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0525

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the difficulty of incomplete information and reaching consensus in large-group emergency decision-making，a group wisdom fusion modelintegrating the wisdom of a wide range of groups for emergency decision making are constructed. On this basis， a consensus model for large group emergency decision making was designed to improve the level of group consensus.Firstly， the public group wisdom is mined in social media to obtain public topics and weights， which are used as decision-making attribute information to participate in the emergency decision-making process.Secondly， cohesion coefficient and coupling coefficient are defined based on trust relationship and preference relationshipamong experts， and cluster weights were determined. The group wisdom fusion model is applied to integrate expert wisdom and public wisdom， and hte comprehensive group wisdom result is obtained.Then， consensus feedback adjustment parameters are determined according to the characteristics of emergency decision-making problems， and consensus measurement based on the results of group wisdom fusion is conducted. By analyzing the cohesion characteristics and coupling characteristics of cluster， the type of cluster is identified and the preference adjustment suggestions are proposed to achieve a high consistency large group decision result. As a result， the rationality and superiority of the model methodproposed in this paper are verified by applying it to the case of “preventing and controlling of public health safety incident related to infectious diseases”.

Key words: social network, group wisdomfusion, large group, emergency decision-making, consensus reaching process

CLC Number:

C934

Xuanhua Xu,Ting Xiao,Xiaohong Chen. A consensus Model for Large-group Emergency Decision-making Based on Group Wisdomfusion under Social Network Environment[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(2): 285-297.

Figures/Tables 16

社会关系矩阵

网络关系图

代数式表示

T = t i - j = 0 ??? 0.4 ??? 0 ??? 1 0 ????? 0 ???? 0 ??? 0 0.7 ? 0.2 ?? 0 ??? 0 0 ???? 0 ???? 0.3 ? 0

$e 1 R e 2, e 1 R e 4, e 3 R e 1,$

$e 3 R e 2, e 4 R e 3$

	方案1	方案2	方案3
$e 1$	$0.29,0.46$	$0.51,0.24$	$0.31,0.42$
$e 2$	$0.19,0.44$	$0.49,0.18$	$0.26,0.45$
		……
$e 19$	$0.50,0.16$	$0.40,0.27$	$0.30,0.45$
$e 20$	$0.74,0.16$	$0.21,0.51$	$0.74,0.09$

聚集	人数	聚类结构	专家权重
$C 1$	4	$e 3, e 4, e 7, e 14$	$w 3 = 0.283$ , $w 4 = 0.157$ , $w 7 = 0.345$ , $w 14 = 0.215$
$C 2$	6	$e 2, e 5, e 8, e 11, e 18, e 20$	$w 2 = 0.128$ , $w 5 = 0.203$ , $w 8 = 0.191$ , $w 11 = 0.199$ , $w 18 = 0.126$ , $w 20 = 0.153$
$C 3$	4	$e 6, e 10, e 13, e 15$	$w 6 = 0.324$ , $w 10 = 0.301$ , $w 13 = 0.174$ , $w 15 = 0.201$
$C 4$	6	$e 1, e 9, e 12, e 16, e 17, e 19$	$w 1 = 0.195$ , $w 9 = 0.155$ , $w 12 = 0.168$ , $w 16 = 0.125$ , $w 17 = 0.222 w 19 = 0.135$

聚集	$X 1$	$X 2$	$X 3$
$C 1$	$0.40,0.27$	$0.44,0.29$	$0.48,0.21$
$C 2$	$0.51,0.25$	$0.32,0.34$	$0.55,0.15$
$C 3$	$0.31,0.34$	$0.40,0.31$	$0.35,0.34$
$C 4$	$0.33,0.39$	$0.41,0.24$	$0.33,0.33$

聚集	$I S (C k)$	$I T S C k$	$α C k$	$E S C k$	$E T S C k$	$β C k$	$W D C k$	$w C k$
$C 1$	0.851	0.293	0.250	0.897	0.588	0.528	0.473	0.114
$C 2$	0.738	0.524	0.387	0.895	0.381	0.341	1.134	0.273
$C 3$	0.801	0.935	0.749	0.898	0.538	0.483	1.550	0.373
$C 4$	0.830	0.662	0.549	0.886	0.620	0.549	1.000	0.241

轮次	共识水平	$G t$	$φ t$
0	$C L C 1 = 0.943$ , $C L C 2 = 0.891$ , $C L C 3 = 0.946$ , $C L C 4 = 0.929$ , $G C L = 0.927$	-	-
1	$C L C 1 = 0.930$ , $C L C 2 = 0.950$ , $C L C 3 = 0.968$ , $C L C 4 = 0.954$ , $G C L = 0.950$	0.023	0.023
2	$C L C 1 = 0.937$ , $C L C 2 = 0.945$ , $C L C 3 = 0.972$ , $C L C 4 = 0.950$ , $G C L = 0.951$	0.001	0.037

$e 2$	$e 5$	$e 8$	$e 11$	$e 18$	$e 20$	群体
0.91	0.58	0.40	0.27	0.46	0.70	0.54

$x 1$	$x 2$	$x 3$
$0.33,0.34$	$0.35,0.30$	$0.40,0.28$

对比文献	聚集权重向量	考虑的中心性特征	融合影响因素分析	方案排序
文献[44]	$(0.203$ , $0.313$ , $0.201$ ,0.282)	2个	信任关系	$x 3 > x 2 > x 1$
本文	$(0.114$ , $0.273$ , $0.373$ ,0.241)	4个	信任关系、偏好关系	$x 3 > x 2 > x 1$

对比文献	迭代次数	调整专家数量	调整灵活度	参数确定	方案排序
文献[45]	6	1	低，确定的调整值	主观	$x 2 > x 3 > x 1$
文献[46]	2	8~9	低，确定的调整值	主观	$x 3 > x 2 > x 1$
文献[47]	2	4~6	低，确定的调整值	主观	$x 3 > x 2 > x 1$
本文	2	4~6	高，可选择的调整区间	客观	$x 3 > x 2 > x 1$

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主题	关键词	权重
医护保障	医护人员、奔赴前线、援助、捐款、医用、驰援等	0.314
感染风险	干咳、发烧、呼吸困难、就诊、防治、发病、就医等	0.282
监测控制	指挥、部署、响应、领导小组、防控、专题会议等	0.214
生活影响	复工、外出、封城、返岗、恢复、出行、延期等	0.190

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A consensus Model for Large-group Emergency Decision-making Based on Group Wisdomfusion under Social Network Environment

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