中国工业氮氧化物排放和强度的结构分解分析及其减排策略

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2598

Abstract

Abstract:

Economic growth has brought challenges to ecological and environmental sustainable development. NO_x governance has become one of the severe challenges of China’s social and economic development， especially the industrial sources. Although the absolute change in aggregate NO_x emissions is often used by researchers and policymakers to measure environmental performance， very few studies systematically track the drivers of NO_x emission/intensity changes with structural decomposition analysis （SDA）. The embodied industrial NO_x emission/intensity is estimated by final demand category at the aggregate and sector levels， and the total NO_x emission/intensity is decomposed using additive and multiplicative SDA under the input-output framework. The results show that the embodied emissions/intensity were significantly reduced at the final demand category level； investment was the main contributor to China’s NO_x emission/intensity， followed by household consumption. The emission intensity effect is the main driver （91.69%） of NO_x emission/intensity reduction， and the domestic Leontief structure effect is the catalyst for the emission intensity effect. The final demand categories presents a blocking effect. At the sector level， the aggregate embodied NO_x emission is mainly contributed by construction （49.26%）， and the aggregate embodied Value Added is mainly contributed by service （44.90%）. The emission efficiency improvement of the sectors “Production and supply of electricity and heating power”， “Non-metal minerals products” and “Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals” make these sectors the main contributors to the decline in the total aggregate embodied emission intensity. Finally， the mitigation strategy is discussed from a win-win perspective balancing economic growth and environmental protection， which provides a theoretical basis for future NO_x governance.

Key words: input-output analysis, NO_x emissions, structural decomposition analysis, aggregate embodied intensity, mitigation strategy

CLC Number:

F424

Guoxing Zhang,Jilei Han,Bin Su. Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Aggregate Industrial NO_x and NO_x Intensity in China Using Structural Decomposition Analysis Framework[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(7): 311-323.

Figures/Tables 13

最终需求	AEI_· (千克/万元)	乘性SDA				AEI_· (千克/万元)	乘性SDA				AEI_· (千克/万元)
最终需求	2012	$D t o t, ·$	$D t o t, ·, i n t$	$D t o t, ·, l s t r$	$D t o t, ·, y s t r$	2017	$D t o t, ·$	$D t o t, ·, i n t$	$D t o t, ·, l s t r$	$D t o t, ·, y s t r$	2020
RC	2.0912	0.2043	0.2317	0.9732	0.9061	0.4272	0.5972	0.5998	0.9444	1.0544	0.2551
UC	2.1623	0.2098	0.2357	0.9719	0.9160	0.4537	0.5816	0.5969	0.9525	1.0229	0.2639
GC	1.2947	0.2209	0.2457	0.8988	1.0004	0.2860	0.5648	0.5878	0.9660	0.9946	0.1615
GFCF	4.1177	0.3346	0.3694	0.9060	0.9998	1.3777	0.5695	0.5839	0.9593	1.0166	0.7846
IC	1.9542	0.4689	0.3106	0.9576	1.5767	0.9164	0.3562	0.6026	0.9752	0.6062	0.3264
EX	3.2714	0.3067	0.3240	0.9609	0.9849	1.0032	0.5679	0.5883	0.9924	0.9726	0.5697
TOT	2.9449	0.2902	0.3209	0.9350	0.9670	0.8545	0.5585	0.5874	0.9648	0.9855	0.4772

References 29

1	Liao S J， Wu Y， Wong S W， et al. Provincial perspective analysis on the coordination between urbanization growth and resource environment carrying capacity （RECC） in China［J］. Science of The Total Environment， 2020， 730（15）： 138964.
2	Jiang L， Chen Y， Zhou H F， et al. NO_x emissions in China： Temporal variations， spatial patterns and reduction potentials［J］. Atmospheric Pollution Research， 2020， 11（9）： 1473-1480.
3	陆旸. 从开放宏观的视角看环境污染问题：一个综述［J］. 经济研究， 2012， 47（2）： 146-158.
	Lu Y. Environmental issues in an open economy： A survey［J］. Economic Research Journal， 2012， 47（2）： 146-158.
4	孙伟增，张晓楠，郑思齐. 空气污染与劳动力的空间流动——基于流动人口就业选址行为的研究［J］. 经济研究， 2019， 54（11）： 102-117.
	Sun W Z， Zhang X N， Zheng S Q. Air pollution and spatial mobility of labor force： Study on the migrants’ job location choice［J］. Economic Research Journal， 2019， 54（11）： 102-117.
5	余红辉. 中国环境治理困境的挑战与策略分析——基于环境投资的内生机制［J］. 管理评论， 2019， 31（1）： 39-47.
	Yu H H. The challenges and strategic analysis of environmental governance in China：Based on endogenous mechanism of environmental investment［J］. Management Review， 2019， 31（1）： 39-47.
6	Zhang Y， Shen L Y， Shuai C Y， et al. How is the environmental efficiency in the process of dramatic economic development in the Chinese cities？［J］. Ecological Indicators， 2019， 98： 349-362.
7	Peng S J， Zhang W C， Sun C W. ‘Environmental load displacement’ from the North to the South： A consumption- based perspective with a focus on China［J］. Ecological Economics， 2016， 128： 147-158.
8	Lin B Q， Xu M M. Does China become the “pollution heaven” in South-South trade？ Evidence from Sino-Russian trade［J］. Science of The Total Environment， 2019， 666： 964-974.
9	陈宏阳，余建辉，张文忠. 中国重污染产业空间集聚及其环境效应：特征与启示［J］. 中国科学院院刊， 2023， 38（12）： 1939-1949.
	Chen H Y， Yu J H， Zhang W Z. Spatial agglomeration and environmental effects of heavy polluting industries in China： Characteristics and enlightenment［J］. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences， 2023， 38（12）： 1939-1949.
10	Steininger K W， Lininger C， Meyer L H， et al. Multiple carbon accounting to support just and effective climate policies［J］. Nature Climate Change， 2016， 6（1）： 35-41.
11	Zhang W， Wang J N， Zhang B， et al. Can China comply with its 12th five-year plan on industrial emissions control： A structural decomposition analysis［J］. Environmental Science & Technology， 2015， 49（8）： 4816-4824.
12	薛俭，朱迪，赵来军.基于省际贸易视角的环境治理隐含成本研究［J］.中国管理科学，2020，28（10）： 210-219.
	Xue J， Zhu D， Zhao L J. Research on the cost of emissions embodied in interprovincial trade［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2020， 28（10）： 210-219.
13	Xie R， Zhao G M， Zhu B Z， et al. Examining the factors affecting air pollution emission growth in China［J］. Environmental Modeling & Assessment， 2018， 23（4）： 389-400.
14	Lyu W N， Li Y， Guan D B， et al. Driving forces of Chinese primary air pollution emissions： An index decomposition analysis［J］. Journal of Cleaner Production， 2016， 133： 136-144.
15	王丽琼. 基于LMDI中国省域氮氧化物减排与实现路径研究［J］. 环境科学学报， 2017， 37（6）： 2394-2402.
	Wang L Q. Investigation of NO_x emissions reduction and its strategies over China’s 30 provinces based on LMDI［J］. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae， 2017， 37（6）： 2394-2402.
16	Ding L， Liu C， Chen K L， et al. Atmospheric pollution reduction effect and regional predicament： An empirical analysis based on the Chinese provincial NO_x emissions［J］. Journal of Environmental Management， 2017， 196： 178-187.
17	Wang J F， Ma Y P， Qiu Y， et al. Spatially differentiated effects of socioeconomic factors on China’s NO_x generation from energy consumption： Implications for mitigation policy［J］. Journal of Environmental Management， 2019， 250：109417.
18	Zhang Y X， Wang H K， Liang S， et al. A dual strategy for controlling energy consumption and air pollution in China’s metropolis of Beijing［J］. Energy， 2015， 81： 294-303.
19	Xu X L， Huang G H， Liu L R， et al. Revealing dynamic impacts of socioeconomic factors on air pollution changes in Guangdong Province， China［J］. Science of The Total Environment， 2020， 699： 134178.
20	Zhang L X， Wang Y， Feng C Y， et al. Understanding the industrial NO_x and SO₂ pollutant emissions in China from sector linkage perspective［J］. Science of The Total Environment， 2021， 770（4）：145242.
21	Zaim O. Measuring environmental performance of state manufacturing through changes in pollution intensities： A DEA framework［J］. Ecological Economics， 2004， 48（1）： 37-47.
22	Feng Z， Cui Y Z， Zhang H B， et al. Assessment of human consumption of ecosystem services in China from 2000 to 2014 based on an ecosystem service footprint model［J］. Ecological Indicators， 2018， 94： 468-481.
23	李玲，张俊荣，汤铃，等. 我国能源强度变动的影响因素分析——基于SDA分解技术［J］. 中国管理科学， 2017， 25（9）： 125-132.
	Li L， Zhang J R， Tang L， et al. Analysis on factors of China’s energy intensity changes for 1997-2012： Based on structural decomposition analysis［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2017， 25（9）： 125-132.
24	Su B， Ang B W. Multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities［J］.Energy Economics， 2017，65： 137-147.
25	Leontief W. Environmental repercussions and the economic structure： An input-output approach［J］. The Review of Economics and Statistics， 1970， 52（3）： 262-271.
26	Su B， Ang B W. Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions： Some methodological developments［J］. Energy Economics， 2011， 34（1）： 177-188.
27	Zhu B Z， Su B， Li Y Z. Input-output and structural decomposition analysis of India’s carbon emissions and intensity， 2007/08-2013/14［J］. Applied Energy， 2018， 230： 1545-1556.
28	Su B， Ang B W. Multiplicative decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity change using input-output analysis［J］. Applied Energy， 2015， 154： 13-20.
29	Su B， Huang H C， Ang B W， et al. Input-output analysis of CO₂ emissions embodied in trade： The effects of sector aggregation［J］. Energy Economics， 2010， 32（1）： 166-175.

年份	人口（万人）	国内生产总值（亿元）	氮氧化物排放（万吨）	人均国内生产总值（万元）	人均收入（万元）	隐含强度（千克/万元）
2012	135922	536800.17	1580.8095	3.9644	3.9532	2.9449
2017	140011	756597.06	646.4795	5.4428	5.4399	0.8545
2020	141212	874882.17	417.4959	6.1955	6.1692	0.4772

最终需求	2012年			2017年			2020年
最终需求	隐含排放（万吨）	隐含VA （亿元）	AEI_· （千克/万元）	隐含排放（万吨）	隐含VA （亿元）	AEI_· （千克/万元）	隐含排放（万吨）	隐含VA （亿元）	AEI_· （千克/万元）
RC	83.23	39799.91	2.0912	22.43	52516.09	0.4272	15.99	62664.11	0.2551
UC	288.23	133296.60	2.1623	93.17	205345.58	0.4537	61.10	231550.31	0.2639
GC	85.42	65982.14	1.2947	29.42	102860.24	0.2860	22.21	137531.49	0.1615
GFCF	785.57	190778.29	4.1177	384.99	279442.31	1.3777	246.23	313850.02	0.7846
IC	17.06	8730.48	1.9542	3.54	3867.38	0.9164	2.26	6934.06	0.3264
EX	321.29	98212.76	3.2714	112.92	112565.46	1.0032	69.70	122352.19	0.5697
TOT	1580.81	536800.17	2.9449	646.48	756597.06	0.8545	417.50	874882.17	0.4772

[1]	XIE Rui, NIU Meng, ZHANG Bin. China’s Employment Change and Driving Factors under Global Value Chains [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(5): 49-59.
[2]	XUE Jian, ZHU Di, ZHAO Lai-jun. Research on The Cost of Emissions Embodied in Interprovincial Trade [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(10): 210-219.
[3]	YAO Ye, XIA Yan, FAN Ying, JIANG Mao-rong. The Drive Factor of Regional Carbon Productivity Disparities Based on Spatial Comparative Path Selection Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(7): 170-178.
[4]	LI Gen, LIU Jia-guo, WANG Xiao-min. Research on Influencing Factors of Complete Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Industry based on Input-Output Methodology and SVAR Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(12): 99-112.
[5]	LI Ling, ZHANG Jun-rong, TANG Ling, YU Le-an. Analysis on Factors of China's Energy Intensity Changes for 1997-2012:Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(9): 125-132.
[6]	WANG Hui-juan, XIA Yan. Influence Factors VS.Developments of China's Household Carbon Emissions [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(8): 1-10.
[7]	XIE Rui, WANG Zhen-guo, ZHANG Bin-bin. Study on Driving Factors and Critical Supply Chain Paths of CO₂ Emissions in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(10): 119-129.
[8]	ZHAO Zhong-xiu, PEI Jian-suo, YAN Yun-feng. Trade Growth, International Fragmentation, and China's CO₂ Growth 1992-2007: The Product-cause Perspective [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(12): 11-17.
[9]	LIU Xiu-li, YANG Cui-hong, WANG Shou-yang. Evaluating Research on the Impacts of Implementation of Building Energy Efficiency Standards on Macro Economic and Environmental Attributes [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (1): 152-160.
[10]	CAI Sheng-hua, MOU Dun-guo, FANG Meng-xiang. A Study on Driving Forces of China’s Industrial Structure Optimization under the Carbon-Intensity Abatement Objective [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2011, 19(4): 167-173.
[11]	XU Da-ju, YIN Jin-sheng, LI Ai-qing, LIU Ji-xiao, ZHOU Ling-li. Research on Economic Meaning of Eigenvalue of the Direct Consumption Coefficient Matrix [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2010, 18(1): 33-38.
[12]	ZHANG Hong-xia. A New Method to Arrange By-product in Input-output Table [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2002, (6): 72-75.
[13]	Pan Xiaomiog. Enterprise Integrated Accounting Matrix and Its Application in Enterprise Management [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 1997, (3): 19-26.
[14]	Zhou Shangyi, Kong Xiang. Input-Output Analysis of Sustainable Resources Using [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 1996, (2): 34-43.

Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Aggregate Industrial NO_x and NO_x Intensity in China Using Structural Decomposition Analysis Framework

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 13

References 29

Related Articles 14

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Aggregate Industrial NOx and NOx Intensity in China Using Structural Decomposition Analysis Framework

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 13

References 29

Related Articles 14

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Aggregate Industrial NO_x and NO_x Intensity in China Using Structural Decomposition Analysis Framework